Brave New World Speech

In 1932, a prophetic young novelist warned with cautioning irony, of a genetically engineered dystopian society. He warned of a world where man had conquered nature, where individualism had fallen to conformity and where political power had achieved total social control. He warned of an age where God, poetry, passion and most of all freedom had disappeared from right under humanity's nose. And finally, he warned of a time when civilization had seemingly turned into robotic life forms, lacking any clear understanding of morals or ethics – it had become essentially soulless. Read this  Respiratory Activity In this make-believe universe, mankind had succeeded in eliminating disease, aggression, war and suffering. This Brave New World had achieved community, identity, stability and a near universal contentment only to be inhabited by creatures of human shape but stunted humanity. Esteemed colleagues of the scientific world, I am here to inform you that this once distant future has now arrived right at our very doorstep. The question I propose is: What do we do about it? The Pill. Invitro Fertilisation. Bottled embryos. Surrogate wombs. Organ harvesting. Brain implants. Ritalin for the young, Viagra for the old and Prozac for everyone in between. But, out of all these scientific innovations, I proclaim that genetic engineering poses the greatest threat to our way of life. Genetic engineering is what I see as an unbridled journey down an incredibly slippery slope. I warn you today, that human procreation is steadily being replaced by the idea of ‘manufacturing' our progeny. Unless this concept is reversed, mankind's movement toward Aldous Huxley's Hatcheries and Michael Bay's Island must surely prove irrevocable. Given the intricacies of the human mind, we doubtless possess the potential for reproducing, someday, to the exact specifications, a human person. But should we? Should we really take the first step? Should we really abandon the old-fashioned genetic roulette of sexual reproduction and replace the variegated human race with identical replicas of carefully chosen, ideal human genotypes? So far the scientific world has said no. Moreover, we have witnessed an enthralling revolution in history, in which the rapid advancement of technology has allowed us to push back the constraints of human existence. I am of course, talking about the birth of Dolly the sheep. Now Dolly is no ordinary sheep. Yes, she may look like one and act no different to her fellows in the flock, but Dolly was cloned – cloned only nine short years ago. They said for centuries that it could never be done; that it was just not possible, and tampering with DNA would only lead to expected failure. But we did it barely seven decades after the publication of Huxley's frightening foresight. After Dolly's conception, the whole world was thrown into a raging whirlpool of fear and anxiety, enquiring just how long it would be before humans were subjected to the same fate. For now, ethicists have taken the reigns in this debate and have stood firm against any form of human genetic engineering support. But the colossal wheel of science is forever turning and this breakthrough scientific sensation has reminded us that it cannot simply be stopped. Thus, the importance of ethical boundaries must be continually stressed and highlighted. As a man of science, I am not here to dissuade you from pursuing scientific grandeur. I am only here to alert you of the abhorrent effects that will no doubt present themselves to humanity should the unrestrained research of cloning continue. Now, what is at issue is nothing less than whether procreation is going to remain human, whether children are going to be made rather than begotten, and whether it is the right choice, humanly speaking, to say yes to the road which leads, at best, to the dehumanized rationality of Brave New World. What we have here, ladies and gentlemen, is not business as usual, to be fretted about for a while and then given our seal of approval; not the least because it appears to be different. Instead, the future of humanity may hang in the balance. I am talking to you about a decision whose consequences will undoubtedly affect your children and your children's children. The debate regarding genetic engineering is much more than just an argument about one more step in assisted reproduction. This is in actuality one of those critical moments where the human race gets a chance to think about the bigger picture – the much bigger picture. I'm not just speaking of genetics and what is the meaning of mother and father or kinship, but also the whole relationship between science and society and our future attitude towards technology. Cloning provides an occasion as well as the urgent necessity of deciding whether we shall be slaves of an unregulated process and ultimately its artefacts or whether we shall remain free individuals to guide our techniques towards the enhancement of human dignity. After all it was Huxley himself who quoted: ‘Every discovery in science is potentially subversive; even science must sometimes be treated as a possible enemy'. You may disregard this speech as nothing more than mere scare-tactics, but am I really that foolish to question a world built on the foundations of totalitarianism and complete control. Ladies and gentlemen, have you forgotten the rise and fall of Communism, the movements of both Nazism and Stalinism as well the ‘one-child policy' enforced by the Chinese government? In this age of entertainment, when philosophical and theological questions are pushed aside as too difficult or too deep, cloning brings us face to face with our perception of what it means to be human and makes us confront both the privileges and limitations of life itself. We live in a consumerist society where the relentless pursuit of youth has already enslaved the minds of the Western world. We want to live longer, be happier, appear more ‘beautiful' and own as much materialistic ‘junk' as we possibly can. The idea of ‘ageing gracefully' is thrown out the window and replaced by the new and improved concept of cosmetic surgery and designer babies. Truly, we do seem to have accepted the Brave New World belief that â€Å"ending is better than mending†. What we have is never enough. We say that globalisation within the last fifty years has become the pinnacle agent of socialisation, but at what cost to our future? It looks as though the Big-Brother style binding of the mass media has only aided in making us feel lonelier and more dissatisfied with our very existence. This dog-eat-dog world has wrongly underpinned the notion that each man is in control of his own universe. As people of science, it is essential we realise who has the authority to control who. A most memorable Huxley quote is: â€Å"The greater a man's talent, the greater is his power to lead astray†. I strongly urge you to look at these past examples of repression and tyranny as valuable lessons on what eventuates when substantial power is given to only a select few. Finally it must be said, that at the end of the day, I find cloning morally and aesthetically completely unacceptable. Perhaps at the heart of my repugnance is a curious paradox, asking why it is that although it would be fun to have a Beethoven, Marilyn Monroe or Einstein living on my block, the idea of having hundreds or thousands of their replicas in town is an absolute nightmare? The reason, I propose, is the generally shared belief in the uniqueness of our human soul. Even though the soul is incorporeal and in truth has little relevance to the laboratory, its value to the majority of humankind, is still of utmost importance. By perfecting the technique of genetic engineering you are unfairly playing the role of God. Who are you to decide which genetic sins are capital offences against the Holy Ghost of Health? And yet, those in favour of cloning claim that it is nothing more than an extension of what breeders of plants and animals had been doing for thousands of years and, indeed, what nature itself did through evolution. They argue that to oppose human genetic engineering, is to betray the western dream of the City of God. All utopian visionaries, from Thomas More to Karl Marx, think of their perfect societies as being populated not by men but by angels that embody all of the best and none of the worst human attributes – comparable to that of an Alpha Plus. So I shall leave you to think of this: Today we are quick to notice dangers to life, risks of discrimination or exploitation of the poor and the interferences with anyone's pursuit of pleasure, but we are obliviously ignorant to recognize threats to our own human dignity and to ways in which the very sanctity of life is placed in danger. The future possibilities in the world of science are incredible; however the need for caution in the field of genetic engineering research is essential if we want to continue owning personal freedom. It was established by Aldous Huxley that â€Å"it is only by means of the sciences of life, that the quality of life can be radically changed†. Even though our Prozac is not yet the Brave New World's ‘soma', our dividing of human embryos is not exactly ‘Bokanovskification' and our MTV is not quite the ‘feelies', the similarity between Huxley's fictional world and ours is disquieting, especially since I believe that our technology has not yet reached its bio-technological peak. Just remember, the admirable actions that men perform can be made complete only by the actions they refuse to pursue.

Critique of Pure Reason Essay

Immanuel Kant, (born April 22, 1724, Konigsberg, Prussia [now Kaliningrad, Russia]—died February 12, 1804, Konigsberg), German philosopher whose comprehensive and systematic work in epistemology (the theory of knowledge), ethics, and aesthetics greatly influenced all subsequent philosophy, especially the various schools of Kantianism and idealism. Kant was one of the foremost thinkers of the Enlightenment and arguably one of the greatest philosophers of all time. In him were subsumed new trends that had begun with the rationalism (stressing reason) of Rene Descartes and the empiricism (stressing experience) of Francis Bacon. He thus inaugurated a new era in the development of philosophical thought. BACKGROUND AND EARLY YEARS Kant lived in the remote province where he was born for his entire life. His father, a saddler, was, according to Kant, a descendant of a Scottish immigrant, although scholars have found no basis for this claim; his mother, an uneducated German woman, was remarkable for her character and natural intelligence. Both parents were devoted followers of the Pietist branch of the Lutheran church, which taught that religion belongs to the inner life expressed in simplicity and obedience to moral law. The influence of their pastor made it possible for Kant—the fourth of nine children but the eldest surviving child—to obtain an education. At the age of eight Kant entered the Pietist school that his pastor directed. This was a Latin school, and it was presumably during the eight and a half years he was there that Kant acquired his lifelong love for the Latin classics, especially for the naturalistic poet Lucretius. In 1740 he enrolled in the University of Konigsberg as a theological student. But, although he attended courses in theology and even preached on a few occasions, he was principally attracted to mathematics and physics. Aided by a young professor who had studied Christian Wolff, a systematizer of rationalist philosophy, and who was also an enthusiast for the science of Sir Isaac Newton, Kant began reading the work of the English physicist and, in 1744, started his first book, Gedanken von der wahren Schatzung der lebendigen Krafte (1746; Thoughts on the True Estimation of Living Forces), dealing with a problem concerning kinetic forces. Though by that time he had decided to pursue an academic career, the death of his father in 1746 and his failure to obtain the post of undertutor in one of the schools attached to the university compelled him to withdraw and seek a means of supporting himself. Tutor and Privatdozent He found employment as a family tutor and, during the nine years that he gave to it, worked for three different families. With them he was introduced to the influential society of the city, acquired social grace, and made his farthest travels from his native city—some 60 miles (96 km) away to the town of Arnsdorf. In 1755, aided by the kindness of a friend, he was able to complete his degree at the university and take up the position of Privatdozent, or lecturer. Period of the three Critiques In 1781 the Kritik der reinen Vernunft (spelled Critik in the first edition; Critique of Pure Reason) was published, followed for the next nine years by great and original works that in a short time brought a revolution in philosophical thought and established the new direction in which it was to go in the years to come. The Critique of Pure Reason The Critique of Pure Reason was the result of some 10 years of thinking and meditation. Yet, even so, Kant published the first edition only reluctantly after many postponements; although convinced of the truth of its doctrine, he was uncertain and doubtful about its exposition. His misgivings proved well founded, and Kant complained that interpreters and critics of the work were badly misunderstanding it. To correct these wrong interpretations of his thought, he wrote the Prolegomena zu einer jeden kunftigen Metaphysik die als Wissenschaft wird auftreten konnen (1783; Prolegomena to Any Future Metaphysics That Will be Able to Come Forward as Science) and brought out a second and revised edition of the first Critique in 1787. Controversy still continues regarding the merits of the two editions: readers with a preference for an idealistic interpretation usually prefer the first edition, whereas those with a realistic view adhere to the second. But with regard to difficulty and ease of reading and understanding, it is generally agreed that there is little to choose between them. Anyone on first opening either book finds it overwhelmingly difficult and impenetrably obscure. The Critique of Practical Reason Because of his insistence on the need for an empirical component in knowledge and his antipathy to speculative metaphysics, Kant is sometimes presented as a positivist before his time, and his attack upon metaphysics was held by many in his own day to bring both religion and morality down with it. Such, however, was certainly far from Kant’s intention. Not only did he propose to put metaphysics â€Å"on the sure path of science,† he was prepared also to say that he â€Å"inevitably† believed in the existence of God and in a future life. It is also true that his original conception of his critical philosophy anticipated the preparation of a critique of moral philosophy. The Kritik der praktischen Vernunft (1788, spelled Critik and practischen; Critique of Practical Reason), the result of this intention, is the standard sourcebook for his ethical doctrines. The earlier Grundlegung zur Metaphysik der Sitten (1785; Groundwork of the Metaphysics of Morals) is a shorter and, despite its title, more readily comprehensible treatment of the same general topic. Both differ from Die Metaphysik der Sitten (1797; The Metaphysics of Morals) in that they deal with pure ethics and try to elucidate basic principles; the later work, in contrast, is concerned with applying these principles in the concrete, a process that involved the consideration of virtues and vices and the foundations of law and politics. The Critique of Judgment The Kritik der Urteilskraft (1790, spelled Critik; Critique of Judgment)—one of the most original and instructive of all of Kant’s writings—was not foreseen in his original conception of the critical philosophy. Thus it is perhaps best regarded as a series of appendixes to the other two Critiques. The work falls into two main parts, called respectively Critique of Aesthetic Judgment and Critique of Teleological Judgment. In the first of these, after an introduction in which he discussed â€Å"logical purposiveness,† he analyzed the notion of â€Å"aesthetic purposiveness† in judgments that ascribe beauty to something. Such a judgment, according to him, unlike a mere expression of taste, lays claim to general validity, yet it cannot be said to be cognitive because it rests on feeling, not on argument. The explanation lies in the fact that, when a person contemplates an object and finds it beautiful, there is a certain harmony between his imagination and his understanding, of which he is aware from the immediate delight that he takes in the object. Imagination grasps the object and yet is not restricted to any definite concept, whereas a person imputes the delight that he feels to others because it springs from the free play of his cognitive faculties, which are the same in all humans. LAST YEARS The critical philosophy was soon being taught in every important German-speaking university, and young men flocked to Konigsberg as a shrine of philosophy. In some cases the Prussian government even undertook the expense of their support. Kant came to be consulted as an oracle on all kinds of questions, including such subjects as the lawfulness of vaccination. Such homage did not interrupt Kant’s regular habits. Scarcely five feet tall, with a deformed chest, and suffering from weak health, he maintained throughout his life a severe regimen. It was arranged with such regularity that people set their clocks according to his daily walk along the street named for him, â€Å"The Philosopher’s Walk. † Until old age prevented him, he is said to have missed this regular appearance only on the occasion when Rousseau’s Emile so engrossed him that for several days he stayed at home. From 1790 Kant’s health began to decline seriously. He still had many literary projects but found it impossible to write more than a few hours a day. The writings that he then completed consist partly of an elaboration of subjects not previously treated in any detail, partly of replies to criticisms and to the clarification of misunderstandings. With the publication in 1793 of his work Die Religion innerhalb der Grenzen der blossen Vernunft (Religion Within the Limits of Reason Alone), Kant became involved in a dispute with Prussian authorities on the right to express religious opinions. The book was found to be altogether too rationalistic for orthodox taste. He was charged with misusing his philosophy to the â€Å"distortion and depreciation of many leading and fundamental doctrines of sacred Scripture and Christianity† and was required by the government not to lecture or write anything further on religious subjects. Kant agreed but privately interpreted the ban as a personal promise to the king, Frederick William II, from which he felt himself to be released on the latter’s death in 1797. At any rate, he returned to the forbidden subject in his last major essay, â€Å"Der Streit der Fakultaten† (1798; â€Å"The Conflict of the Faculties†). In 1797 Kant published Die Metaphysik der Sitten (The Metaphysics of Morals), comprising Metaphysische Anfangsgrunde der Rechtslehre (The Philosophy of Law) and Metaphysische Anfangsgrunde der Tugendlehre (The Doctrine of Virtue). The former was the major statement of his political philosophy, which he also discussed in Zum ewigen Frieden (1795; Project for a Perpetual Peace) and in the essay â€Å"Uber den Gemeinspruch: Das mag in der Theorie richtig sein, taugt aber nicht fur die Praxis† (1793; â€Å"On the Old Saw: That May Be Right In Theory, But It Won’t Work in Practice†). The large work at which he laboured until his death—the fragments of which fill the two final volumes of the great Berlin edition of his works—was evidently intended to be a major contribution to his critical philosophy. What remains, however, is not so much an unfinished work as a series of notes for a work that was never written. Known as the Opus postumum, its original title was Ubergang von den metaphysische Anfangsgrunde der Naturwissenschaft zur Physik (â€Å"Transition from the Metaphysical Foundations of Natural Science to Physics†). It may have been Kant’s intention in this work to carry further the argument advanced in the Metaphysische Anfangsgrunde der Naturwissenschaft (1786; Metaphysical Foundations of Natural Science) by showing that it is possible to construct a priori not merely the general outline of a science of nature but a good many of its details as well. But judging from the extant fragments, however numerous they are, it remains conjectural whether its completion would have constituted a major addition to his philosophy and its reputation. After a gradual decline that was painful to his friends as well as to himself, Kant died in Konigsberg on February 12, 1804. His last words were â€Å"Es ist gut† (â€Å"It is good†). His tomb in the cathedral was inscribed with the words (in German) â€Å"The starry heavens above me and the moral law within me,† the two things that he declared in the conclusion of the second Critique â€Å"fill the mind with ever new and increasing admiration and awe, the oftener and the more steadily we reflect on. † IMMANUEL KANT Prepared by: Cherry B. Ordonez Alliona Gem S. Tolentino N- 201.

A Report On The Strategic Change Issues Facing British

Ancient philosophers always said that the only room that never gets full is the room for change and growth to better levels. Change brings a sound of celebration and relief. In the business sector any change is always geared to the increase in profit. Any business venture has one driving force: creation of wealth and economic growth. This is the reason for existence of businesses like: banking, hotels, airlines, schools, hospitals among others. Operation management is the day to day decisions and ventures that are undertaken to run the company. This can help give a projection into the future 5, 10 or so years.One thing that is very basic is that the world is changing, and an effective business should also help to bring this very necessary difference. â€Å"One of the key roles of a serious manager and entrepreneur is to solve problems decision making is another major role of this officer. † These were the confession of Carleton (2005). Decisions pertaining various departments in a company are made by key management staff in every firm: The key drivers for change that are most likely to impact on the future of business and management are: Stiff and ever increasing competition from key rival firms.One must always be the best in the market place in order to remain advantaged. This will call for several reforms towards improvement, and such challenges will be dealt with as they come. Some decisions to be made, take time and energy. However, the knee-jerk response is to jump straight to the most obvious solution: training and coaching to develop individuals' leadership skills and potential. This conveniently bypasses the problem-diagnosis stage. It also overlooks the disconnect between what happens at individual and organizational levels. Managerial and human resource aspects have always put pressure on firms.Such pressure is sure argent of change. A global trend is another driving factor towards change. Any new standards set up must be adhered to if one need s to e in the market. The main aim is to develop an appreciation to the role of management in the process change in the firms of interest. Management of such a change can never be an individual affair. It explores the forces driving organizational change and offers a contextual understanding of change management principles. Do you do it alone as a manager? Do you involve others? Do you let others make the decisions?Management is an organized, systematic application of the knowledge, tools, and resources of change that provides organizations with a key process to achieve their business strategy. Change Management is a critical part of any project that leads, manages and enables people to accept new processes, technologies, systems structures and values. Changes are inevitable in any firm or sector. Of great interest is change management in British Airline Company. Many such firms as this exist. This calls for real outstanding leadership in the market place. BRITISH AIRWAYS This is an airline with it’s headquarters in London.Europe has increased sharply over the past decade as the introduction of new airlines has helped push prices down significantly. This airline has routes both within and without the great United Kingdom sky. This airline is the world's second largest international airline, with a passenger carrying capacity of more than 27 million passengers from one country to another. Also, as one of the world’s longest established airlines, it has always been regarded as an industry-leader. British Airways’ worldwide route network covers more than 216 destinations in 94 countries (including franchises, subsidiaries and one world partners).British Airways is one of the founding partners of the one world alliance, which took off in February 1999. Fellow members now include American Airlines, Aer Lingus, Cathay Pacific, Finnie, Iberia, LanChile and Qantas and Swiss. The original predecessor airline, called Aircraft Transport and Travel, l aunched the world's first daily scheduled international air service, British Airways traces its origins back to August 1919. At the moment the airline has an amazing fleet of 312 aircraft; including 100 wide bodied long haul aircraft (57 Boeing 747-400s and 43 Boeing 777s).The current world has gone into corporate alliances, with mergers and acquisitions being the common norm of doing business. For this reason, British Airways has one-on-one relationships with a number of airlines. It owns a 17 per cent stake in Qantas and 9 per cent in Iberia. It also fully owns subsidiaries such as British Airways CitiExpress. Members of British Airways’ franchise family include British Mediterranean Airways, GB Airways, Comair, Loganair and Regional Air. Some of the main components of British Airway’s business strategy include investing in its people and products, and continuing to build a competitive cost base.These objectives, along with other strategic goals and values, have been delivered through a program called â€Å"The BA Way,† which was launched in 2004. This was in response to the people wanting real clarity about where company is positioning itself in the marketplace. The leading entrepreneur once observed that major firms often started as either government or public properties. This however is never the case with British Airways. This company is owned entirely by private investors, with more than a quarter of a million shareholders. British airways just like any business have its own problems.The problems always arise in the process of moving to greater heights. As executive assistant to the director of British airways, change issues facing the organization in the next 5 five years are amazing. The major problems are as below: MANAGERIAL The BA Way has five factors for success: be the best U. K. -based network, understand the customers better than the competition, be a powerful brand that people know and trust, foster a competitive cost base and work together as one team. For a progressive development of a business, proper leadership is bedrock to build on.Managerialism, especially in the public and quasi-market sectors, has provided a key development in how organizations are managed, co-coordinated and controlled, and is suggestive of new relationships and a reordering of organizations and management. In the March issue of Fast Company magazine, a fascinating article titled â€Å"What is the Biggest Change Facing Business in the Next 10 Years? † Avram Miler, the CEO of Avram Miller enterprise explained that â€Å"The cornerstone for this millennium is the end of time and space. Most organizations today are run the same way as early-20th-century businesses.Everyone goes to his car, drives to work, has certain hours, and has a certain job. It's all built on the factory model. Moving forward, it really isn't going to be important where you are in order to do your job. Ideas are being worked on 24 hours a day. Nob ody seems surprised anymore if I wake up in the middle of the night and start IM-ing someone in Europe, because the fact is, they don't even know where I am. And it doesn't matter. ’’ He continues to say that â€Å"Fewer and fewer people will want to be employees of corporations, because corporations don't have anything to offer.Corporations don't provide security and provide fewer and fewer benefits. People may find new ways to sell their skills. † This illustrates that many people often get employed in companies, but the never have any intentions of staying for long periods. Tim Brown President and CEO, Ideo, Palo Alto, humorously says â€Å"people are ever on the move to greener pastures. † This is one major problem in management. Employees, some of whom hold very key positions in the company always transfer to the so called green pastures.The human resources manager of British airways observed that many of their staff has often moved to start their ow n ventures. These range from local to international ventures. The best way to manage this problem is to create laws governing employment. Its true that a person performs best only after getting good orientation on an environment. Consistency is another key to excellence. To avoid loosing employees, a minimum duration should be put, such that no employee can leave before finishing some specific time duration. This will help the airline to retain workers for some good time and hence foster consistency.The major hindrance to this implementation is some weakness in management. Friends to departmental heads are always favored and the axe rarely falls on them. This however can be managed by prosecution of any corrupt staff. Another managerial problem often realized in British Airways is lack of commitment in some of the employees. They often take long to finish any assignment given to them, and when asked to give an explanation, this is a ticket to being their enemies. This vice in a comp any leads into loss of money, because people are paid their allowance while they don’t perform their duties.Many researches argue that training and development programs increase the organizations performance and effectiveness. This can help increase the work output because more experience is injected to the generally trained staff. Toward a better understanding of the effects of training and development in the workplace, this research points out the importance of training and development the workforce, determines the major types of training and development programs, discusses the relationship between training and the overall organizational performance, and offers some guidelines for HR managers to design effective training and development programs.Signing of performance contracts has helped to alleviate this vice. This helps to ascertain that an employee indeed deserves to get his salary. Burnes (2004) in his book arrives at a style which enables healthy competition within a firm, resulting into increase of production. He says â€Å"the ability of an enterprise to compete within the prevailing settings relies on two qualities: †¢ The capacity of the firm to identify and understand the competitive forces in play and how they change over time linked together.†¢ The competence of a business to mobilize and manage the resources necessary for the chosen competitive response through time. British Airways have implemented this, and many staff has always been awarded for showing commitment and excellent performance. GLOBALISATION Another method British Airways’ learning division has used to promote organizational values is through owning its Future program, which every employee across the enterprise—from in-flight crews to customer service staff—must go through at some point.This is delivered by the internal senior management teams. It’s about helping people understand the business direction, the environment that they are operating in and the way they are positioning themselves in the business. By understanding that, people will understand the actions the team is taking in driving the business forward (British Airways, 2005) Some of the changes that British Airways has in the next five years include: †¢ BA to increase services between New York JFK and Gatwick, but at the same time drop its link to the US city from Manchester Airport.†¢ BA to enhance the passenger experience at the new London Heathrow Terminal 5 with the installation of art works in its premium lounges. Companies move towards forming alliances, both local and at international level. The environment in which most organizations operate today is continuously changing, and the rate of change is increasing. Almost most organizations are now involving in tremendous increase in international business and foreign assignments. British Airways is not left behind. At the moment, the company has offices in all capital cities in the worl d.At the same time, serious advertisements are on the run. To enhance collisions, BA purchased the small German domestic airline Delta Air Transport in 1992 and renamed it Deutsche BA. By the time it was sold in June 2003, DBA was operating 16 Boeing 737s and was the second-largest German domestic carrier, after Lufthansa. Globalization is a disposition towards international interaction and co-operation. This comes with the general growth of a knowledge based economy. Impacting on the financing structure of organizations and employment practices.The ability of an enterprise to compete within the prevailing settings majorly relies on two qualities: the capacity of the firm to identify and understand the competitive forces in play and how they change over time, linked to †¢ the competence of a business to mobilize and manage the resources necessary for the chosen competitive response through time. . The environment in which most organizations operate today is continuously changin g, and the rate of change is increasing. Almost most organizations are now involving in tremendous increase in international business and foreign assignments.BA aims at increasing the number of passengers greatly. New infrastructure is required for this. Heathrow Terminal 5 was built exclusively for the use of British Airways at a cost of ? 4. 3 billion and officially opened by Queen Elizabeth II on 14 March 2008. It opened to passengers on 27 March 2008. more air crafts are also to be purchased come 2013. for instance, On 27 September 2007, BA announced their biggest order since 1998 by ordering 36 new long haul aircraft. The company ordered 12 A380s with options on a further 7, and 24 Boeing 787s with options on a further 18. TECHNOLOGYTechnological factors are information technology/the internet, new production processes computerization of processes and changes in transport technology (Human Resource Management Journal, 2008). There are also internal triggers for change which inc lude: new chief executive, unionization or de-unionization, structural a change, re-design of factory or office layout, re-design of jobs, new IT equipment or software introduced, cuts in overtime working and redundancies (Epmbook, 2007). As research continues in the energy sector, Bio fuel may be used by BA planes. This is an improvement towards good environment creation.Indeed this is amazing. Currently the test of planes is going on, on their response to bio fuel. The above forces are for easier information transfer, facilitates global structures, requires new competencies and expectations, facilitates telecommuting; new employment relationships, more emphasis on knowledge management, quick competition through globalization, more educated workforce etc (McShane and Travaglione, 2003). Change management entails thoughtful planning and sensitive implementation, and above all, consultation with, and involvement of, the people affected by the changes and BA has mastered this art.Chan ge must be realistic, achievable and measurable. These aspects are especially relevant to managing personal change. Before starting organizational change, ask yourself: What do we want to achieve with this change, why, and how will we know that the change has been achieved? Who is affected by this change, and how will they react to it? How much of this change can be achieve without? These aspects also relate strongly to the management of personal as well as organizational change (Business balls, 2006). If you think that you need to make a change quickly, probe the reasons – is the urgency real?Will the effects of agreeing a more sensible time-frame really be more disastrous than presiding over a disastrous change? Quick change prevents proper consultation and involvement, which leads to difficulties that take time to resolve, (Burns & Stalker, 1994). BA does not sell change to people as a way of accelerating ‘agreement' and implementation. ‘Selling' change to peop le is not a sustainable strategy for success, unless your aim is to be bitten on the bum at some time in the future when you least expect it. Change can be unsettling, so the manager logically needs to be a settling influence.BA has gone through extreme lengths to ensure that they study the market. They are keen on the use face-to-face communications to handle sensitive aspects of customer relations and encourage managers to communicate face-to-face with their people. They discourage the use of email and written notices as they are extremely weak at conveying and developing understanding. At all times involve and agree support from people within system (system = environment, processes, culture, relationships, behaviors, etc. , whether personal or organisational). †¢ In depth understanding of the organisation’s position at all times.†¢ In depth understanding of the direction of the organisation. †¢ Open and clear communication channels. SPECIFIC CHANGES THAT BRI TISH AIRWAYS HAS ENCOUNTERED From a humble background BA has expanded to the giant it is by now. This never occurred in one day, neither was it a very smooth transition. Given time, all have a potential to expand to the highest levels. One of the greatest changes that occurred in BA was mergers and acquisition. During the 1990s BA became the world's most profitable airline under the slogan â€Å"The World's Favorite Airline†. The management then saw the need to expand.A merger is the business transaction that takes pace between two firms. One firm acts as a buyer, while the other company is bought. Mergers take place to help cub extreme competition and also to widen the market scope. In 1992 BA purchased the small German domestic airline Delta Air Transport and renamed it Deutsche BA. This widened the market space into Germany. By the time it was sold in June 2003, DBA was operating 16 Boeing 737s and was the second-largest German domestic carrier, after Lufthansa. The lesson learnt is that mergers bring expansion and growth.In the year 1995, BA formed British Asia Airways, a subsidiary based in Taiwan, to operate between London and Taipei. Owing to political sensitivities, British Asia Airways not only had a different name, but also had a different livery, with the Union Jack tailfin being replaced by Chinese characters. Many airlines followed the same practice, e. g. , Qantas flew to Taiwan as â€Å"Australia Asia Airways† and KLM's Taiwan operations became â€Å"KLM Asia†. British Asia Airways ceased operation in 2001 when the airline suspended flights to Taiwan due to low yield. A change brings with it many resettlements.Some include employment of new staff to handle the expansion. This was the case in the two mergers in Germany and Taiwan. Other changes are indeed not pleasing. An example is the laying off of staff incase of closure. Proper marketing must be done. This is to keep the much esteemed customers aware of the companyâ€℠¢s developments. The road to success is never a smooth one. Any push to the positive is always met by opposing currents. Some of pitfalls to change into a new market include competition. The main competitors of British Airways are bmi and virgin Atlantic. These offer great rivalry.However BA has managed this through its strategies to make sure that clients are satisfied by the service delivery. Capital is another challenge to expansion. Some expansion ventures require much money. This is money to buy planes and to do office set up, with an aim of getting back the profit. Many a times the company has gone through looses especially when they were forced to pull back. Withdrawal is not very pleasant but it is the best option especially when things are not working. This was the case in Taiwan. The world population is large and ever-growing. This has and will provide market for flight industry.The best way to venture is to do market surveys. Once the costumer’s desires are known, follow up can be made to come up with a product to satisfy the need. It pays a lot to be the market leader in terms of innovations. This will give an advantage over other companies. CONCLUSION It takes commitment and vision to be on the top. BA has one dream, which is to be on top in the flight industry. In the next five years, the company shall have diversified its services in terms of quality and quantity expansion. REFERENCES 1. British Airways(2005): The Wings of Learning.Retrieved from World Wide Web as from 19th April 2008 from http://www. clomedia. com/content/templates/clo_article. asp 2. Buchanan, D & Boddy, D. (1992). The Expertise of the Change Agent. Hemel Hempstead. US: Prentice Hall. 3. Burns & Stalker, (1994). The Management of Innovation. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 4. Businessballs (2006). Change management. Retrieved from World Wide Web as from 18th April 2008 from http://www. businessballs. com/changemanagement. htm 5. 5. Change Management (2008). A Thirst fo r Change Leadership. Retrieved from World Wide Web as from 18th April 2008 from http://www.change-management. com/tutorial-change-leadership-mod4. htm 6. DCUBS (1996). Total Quality Management and Organisational Change. Retrieved from World Wide Web as from 18th April 2008 from http://www. dcu. ie/dcubs/research_papers/no15. htm 7. Epmbook (2007). Organisational Change Management. Retrieved from World Wide Web as from 18th April 2008 from http://www. epmbook. com/orgchange. htm 8. Harvard Business Review journal. Retrieved from World Wide Web as from 18th April 2008 from http://www. learnoutloud. com/Catalog/Business/Leadership-and-Management/Change-Management/820 9.Harvard Business Review journal (1995). Retrieved from World Wide Web as from 18th April 2008 from http://www. hbsp. harvard. edu/hbsp/hbr/articles/article. jsp 10. Human Resource Management Journal (2008). Retrieved from World Wide Web as from 18th April 2008 from http://www. blackwellpublishing. com/journal. asp1 11. M cShane S. and Travaglione T. (2003). Organisational Behaviour on the Pacific Rim. Australia: McGraw-Hill. 12. Organisation Studies journal (2008). Retrieved from World Wide Web as from 18th April 2008 from http://www. mbs. ac. uk/research/organisationstudies/cms5/call-papers/talk-power. aspx 13.Personnel Today Journal of Applied Human Capital Management (2007). Retrieved from World Wide Web as from 18th April 2008 from http://www. personneltoday. com/blogs/hcglobal-human-capital-management/2007/04/journal-of-applied-human-capit. html 14. Pettigrew, A and Whipp, R (1991) Managing Change for competitive success. U. K: Blackwell. 15. Strategy + Business (2004). 10 Principles of Change Management. Retrieved from World Wide Web as from 18th April 2008 from http://www. strategy-business. com/ 16. 15. The Economist journal (2008). Retrieved from World Wide Web as from 18th April 2008 from http://www. sciencedirect. com/

Men,women,sex and Darwin Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Men,women,sex and Darwin - Research Paper Example Sex-organs not only decide the gender of human beings but they make a remarkable impact on the social status, social responsibility, attitude, nature and even the destiny of human being. This is the reason why it is not possible to measure both men and women in the same balance scale. According to Hindu philosophy the one and only Supreme Almighty Power divided Himself into two forms, one was Shiva (masculine form) and another was Aadi (feminine form) and thus with formation of two genders the world became complete. Shiva stands for vigour and aggressiveness which is depicted in Indian classical dances whereas Aadi stands for delicacy endurance and optimum commitment. Thus Since ancient time man is regarded as a valiant creature and thus he started dominating the woman. It is the rule of the nature that the strong animal always rules the world. In course of civilization man thus took the charge of ultimate supremacy and thus the Patriarchal family emerged. Sexual desire is same both in man and woman but the desire of man was accepted by the society whereas woman had to conceal her desire all the time. In medieval India, the widowers could marry many times if they lost their wives, but woman, after the death of her husband was never allowed even to think of the other man. She had to live a renounced life even though she lost him at the very tender age of her. Traditionally woman plays the role of a giver whereas man is a taker as far as sexual affair is concerned. She is physically dependent so as financially and mentally. Till now women were financially dependent and this dependency reflects in their sexual life also. Many of the dependent women view that it is their duty to give pleasure to their ultimate God and their God is their husband. Their work all the time is to serve the husband and by default take the entire responsibility of bringing up the kids. The time changed but not the psyche. Yet women are mentally dependent that they cannot take any decision without the consent of any of the male members from the family. There are some women who earn a lot, sometimes more than their husband, but when question of utilizing that money comes, they cannot take their own decision, as they are not used to it. They have not been taught that they also have their views which can differ from their male counterparts. They even cannot spend a single penny without informing their husband. Another thing is that even though in modern world women also are earning and contributing financially in running the family, they get insecure if they find that their husbands are not earning and they are just sitting and living idle life. That is why the educated and earning ladies prefer to marry a rich man or high profiled person. On the contrary, most of the women do not contribute financially but they feel safe in the shadow of their husbands. Even if only man is the bread winner, they do not mind depending on him. So even while choosing the life partner wome n themselves have accepted their second position somewhere. They always want the man superior to them. It does not matter whether the woman is earning or not. Man by nature is polygamous and the circumstances also make him polygamous. He always enjoys lot of freedom and this freedom sometimes leads to promiscuous attitude. As far as love and sex are concerned, man gives importance to the physical beauty of the woman. In case of woman the sexual desire somewhat gets fed after giving the birth to the children. It is because the priorities of her life suddenly get changed and she fully concentrates herself in taking care of her babies. For attaining these ultimate objectives looks for stability from her man. So she always prefers to maintain the relationship with ambitious and rich man. By nature, she tends to fling themselves into the hands of man she loves. At the same time she expects that if she is committed to her husband completely, it is his duty to keep her and their children i n a sound condition always. Libido is the forth basic instinct

Unit 6 Proposal Designs Blog Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Unit 6 Proposal Designs Blog - Research Paper Example The main aim of the program is addressing unfit behaviors in the community and emphasizing on the important of fitness as well as helping in the reduction of obesity and other health related issues associated with sedimentary lifestyles (Karsh & Fox, 2009). Information should be included in a grand proposal that makes it more appealing and convincing to the funders. This includes provision of a good statement need. It provides a rationale and a background for the proposal. It should establish the importance and needs for the project. Objectives and goals of the grand proposal need to be included. The objectives should be measurable, attainable, specific, and time bound. The methodology and ways to implement the project should be convincing and possible. The methodology gives an insight of how the problems addressed are solved. The evaluating tools should be well outlined and analyzed. Funding agencies want their grants to produce a maximum impact. Thus, the proposal should disseminate methods of maximum utilization of funds with accountability (Kaplan,

Public law (check assingment criteria for details of question) Essay

Public law (check assingment criteria for details of question) - Essay Example the limits of protecting the interests of public at large on the one hand the individual liberties of a certain number of persons who are seen as threats to those interests? Since antiquity, law has been applied to the state itself, as symbolized by the King. The public good is supposed to be the best law. Laws apply to state in order to restrain it. This form of government is called Constitutional government. In an ideal constitutional government, laws are made by the legislature elected by the people, the administration is looked after by the government (the King in historic times) and the judiciary applies law to determine the issues between parties. Laws are public instruments - they are written in statute books. They are made so as to regulate the powers exercised by the state over individuals. However, there are inevitably areas of law in which the public good is considered to be more important than the individual liberty. Such may be the case where the activities of an individual are harmful to the society at large. In such circumstances, the state may be justified in depriving the individual of his liberties. An example of this may be a psychiatrically disturbed person roaming the streets armed with a deadly weapon. He may not see reason, which may necessitate his arrest and detention. If this person is doing this for a political reason, then of course a different yardstick would be applied. Where the government of a state declares an emergency and civil rights of its citizens are suspended, there is bound to be a huge outcry – what was the necessity of adopting such a drastic measure? There are bound to be challenges to the government’s authority to do so, there will be The object of this essay is to examine the conflict between the individual and the state with regard to human rights. The essay will limit itself to the prevalent situation in the United Kingdom. The scenario regarding public security, law and order has changed dramatically after

Emotional appeal In advertising Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2250 words

Emotional appeal In advertising - Essay Example Definitely, these individuals hope to inform the public, persuading them to make purchases or consider the idea on sale. The ultimate goal for advertising is increasing a firm’s sales revenue by winning customer loyalty or attracting new customers to purchase the good.as advertisers seek to make sales through advertising, they establish a relationship between the organization and the target audience. The mode of advertising chosen to convey the message to the people, the target audience, and efficiency of the message contained in the advertisement determines the success of the advertisement. The various forms of advertising available for organizations to exploit when selling ideas and information about their commodities include the point and non-print media. Regardless of the method chosen in an advertisement, information contained in the advert determines the reaction of the people towards that particular advertisement. To capture the attention of the people, advertisers use different means such as creating an emotional appeal to the audience. Discussed in this essay are the various emotional appeals organizations use to capture the attention of the audience, convincing them to purchase their goods. The essay seeks to prove that the manner in which an advertiser creates an advert and the kind of information contained in the advertisements most cases determines the success of the advert. It also seeks to prove that emotional appeal plays a significant role in convincing people to purchase one product and not the other. Relationship between consumers and advertising A big relationship exists between advertisers and the target customers, points out Hansen & Christensen (2007, p. 117). The main relationship between the two is the main reason for the advertising either a product or a service. Whenever an advertising agency sends out an advert to the public, people get to watch, listen, or read about it. This starts the relationship between the two parties. H owever, it is the duty of the advertiser to maintain the relationship, by keeping an advert running in the selected media platforms. If the advertisement stops running in the various forms of media selected, this automatically ends the relationship between the advertiser and the customers. Thus, aggressive advertising solidifies the relationship between the advertiser and the customer. However, not all advertisements are appealing to the audience. While creating an advert, putting into consideration the audience targeted, the media used and the kind of information to send to the audience. Accordiong to Donthu et al. (2004, p. 6) any form of information communicated to the audience should possess a moral appeal to the target audience. Morality of the information, a significant factor to the success of any particular advert, hopes to capture positively target customers. As such, information contained in the advert should have a moral appeal to the audience. As such, it should have no offence whatsoever to the concerned parties and individuals. Age is yet another important element to consider while creating an advert. Demographic factors influence the impact of an advert to the target audience. Not all adverts have the same impact to all people, just as not all adverts target all people. What appeals most to children does not have a similar influence to the youth band the young adults. Similarly, it has a different effect to the old people. Therefore, spending a considerable amount of time determining the kind of infor

Describe the characteristics of abusers and analyze the role substance Essay

Describe the characteristics of abusers and analyze the role substance abuse plays in domestic violence - Essay Example Wormer & Thyer (2009) observe that there is a bidirectional relationship between substance abuse and victimization by partners. Studies have shown that substance abuse increases the risk of victimization through various ways â€Å"such as impairing both their judgment and perpetrator’s judgment alike, increasing financial dependency, and exposing women to violent men who also abuse substances† (Wormer & Thyer, 2009, p. 154). The authors also observe that there is a clear reciprocal relationship between substance abuse by women and domestic violence toward women as the latter enhances the likelihood of domestic violence against women. Cefrey, in this respect, purports that â€Å"when drunk or high, substance abusers are more likely to behave aggressively or act in other socially unacceptable ways† (Cefrey, 2008, p. 10). For instance, the case study conducted by researchers such as Woerle, Guerin & Smith on the violence between intimate partners within an arrestee population in Albuquerque, New Mexico clearly demonstrated that most of the domestic violence in the region were preceded by drug or alcohol use and that there existed a intimate partner abuse and high rate of violent interaction between abuser and abused (Woerle, Guerin & Smith, 2002, p. 7). Wilson (2005) also unearths the intimate relationship between substance abuse and domestic violence. Drug abuse and alcohol abuse have been proved to be the most common forms of substance abuse that very often results in unhealthy domestic violence. ... 1). Wormer & Thyer (2009) observe that there is a bidirectional relationship between substance abuse and victimization by partners. Studies have shown that substance abuse increases the risk of victimization through various ways â€Å"such as impairing both their judgment and perpetrator’s judgment alike, increasing financial dependency, and exposing women to violent men who also abuse substances† (Wormer & Thyer, 2009, p. 154). The authors also observe that there is a clear reciprocal relationship between substance abuse by women and domestic violence toward women as the latter enhances the likelihood of domestic violence against women. Cefrey, in this respect, purports that â€Å"when drunk or high, substance abusers are more likely to behave aggressively or act in other socially unacceptable ways† (Cefrey, 2008, p. 10). For instance, the case study conducted by researchers such as Woerle, Guerin & Smith on the violence between intimate partners within an arres tee population in Albuquerque, New Mexico clearly demonstrated that most of the domestic violence in the region were preceded by drug or alcohol use and that there existed a intimate partner abuse and high rate of violent interaction between abuser and abused (Woerle, Guerin & Smith, 2002, p. 7). Wilson (2005) also unearths the intimate relationship between substance abuse and domestic violence. Drug abuse and alcohol abuse have been proved to be the most common forms of substance abuse that very often results in unhealthy domestic violence. Wilson, in this respect, observes that abusive men with severe alcohol problems are more likely indulge in domestic violence with

GlOBALIZATION AND INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT Research Paper

GlOBALIZATION AND INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT - Research Paper Example The warranty policy for products and/or services in China is for two years while the company provides warranty for a period of one year. The warranty policy of the company is criticized by the media, Communist Party, celebrities and consumers in the market of China. This issue is mainly criticized for the violation and the negligence of the company towards the rules as well as the regulations of China in relation to foreign companies operating in the Chinese market segment. The company is also seemed to face challenge in relation to after sales services. The consumers also complained that they are not provided with adequate customer services with issues including technical faults among others. The state media of China is a major challenge for the company i.e. Apple as the Chinese media has undertaken every measure in criticizing the policies of the company and revealing the ill-treatment that Chinese journalists has faced in the offices of Apple in China through news. The state media is determined to adopt aggressive tactic of criticizing the operations of Apple in China with the intention of enhancing the performance of local telecom companies to compete with Apple (Barboza and Wingfield, â€Å"Pressured by China, Apple Apologizes for Warranty Policies†). ... The company is identified to face pressure in the Chinese market due to rivalry issues amid China and the US. China has faced cyber-security issues in relation to hacking of computers of various American companies. Additionally, it has been identified that the Government of the US had proposed to restrict the operations of two Chinese companies in the US. The two Chinese companies which include Huawei and ZTE are the leading producers of telecommunications equipment had been advised to stop their businesses in the US due to engagement in espionage activities (V.V.V., â€Å"Unparalleled Arrogance, Full Apology†). These are the various challenges which are faced by Apple in the market segment of China. Furthermore, these challenges are seemed to act as a trade barrier for the US corporations to operate their business activities in China. 2. RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY OF APPLE Apple is identified to possess certain risk management strategies with the objective of mitigating risks w hich arise both in the national as well as international market segments. It can be stated that the company does not possess adequate risk management strategies in order to eliminate those risks at the time of identification. The company is seemed to adopt risk management strategy for interest rate and foreign currency risks but is ineffective in the management of risks arising within challenging marketplaces regarding consumers. It is observed that in the market segment of China, the company has faced various challenges in relation to warranty policy and customer services which are affecting the performance and customer base. The company is a multinational corporation and accordingly it has over the years faced various challenges in relation to rules and

Effect of Poverty on Women's Healthcare Research Paper

Effect of Poverty on Women's Healthcare - Research Paper Example health, it becomes imperative to identify and disclose health disparities related to gender and economic level so that appropriate actions are taken to help the needful. In this article, feminization of poverty and the health effects of poverty on women is discussed. It is a well known fact that the health of women is not only determined by biological factors but also by several social factors, the most important of which is poverty. In fact, 2 out of every 3 women in the world are plagued by poverty leading to an array of clinical problems like malnutrition, anemia, easy fatigability, increased susceptibility to infections and even premature death (Cohen, 1994). Though several organizations like the World Health Organization have asserted that health is a fundamental right of every human being irrespective of sex and other aspects, several women are being denied of this right and the main cause for this happens to be poverty. It is very important to tackle poverty of women for the purpose of long term success of the child poverty strategy of the Government (WBG, 2005). In this essay, the impact of poverty on the health care of women will be discussed through review of appropriate literature. In several countries like even developed countries like Canada, the poverty rates of women across all age groups is higher than in men. One of the main reasons for poverty among women is their dependency for living. In many races, women are not provided enough education and this leads to poor vocational opportunity and poverty. Many researchers favour the link between education and poverty (Zaki and El-Deeb, 2004). Also, many women cannot get employed full-time because of the responsibilities they have towards their children, husbands and elderly people at home. Lack of awareness which is more predominant in those belonging to lower socio-economic group is another major factor that influences health. In a study by Ailinget et al (2009), it was found that poor women had lower

The Effective Manager Cw3 Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

The Effective Manager Cw3 - Coursework Example The mangers are responsible for the optimum utilization of resources in order to achieve the goals of the organization. Management is a set of activities which is directed towards the resources of the organization with a aim of achieving the required goal in an effective and efficient manner. In general a successful organization comprises of both effective as well as efficient mangers. In the competitive world managers tends to face new as well as interesting and challenging situations. The average working time is about 60 hours per week and has a huge demand place upon the mangers time and at the same time faces complexities due to globalization, completion, government regulations and other uncertainties. The job role of a manger is unpredictable and filled with challenges but it is also filled with opportunity which has the potential to make difference. Good managers have the potential to bring in success in the organization (Griffin, 2011, p.4). ... The quality and effective management styles of the mangers can determine the organizational culture, productivity of the staff and success or failure of the organization (Francis, 2012). Characteristics of Effective Management An effective manger is one who makes the right decisions and successfully implements the decisions. However there are many different characteristic that a manger should posses for the effective working of the organization. But according to me the most important characteristic for a manger should be a good team player and time management should be the next important characteristic for an effective manger. A team builder can be defined as a person who is strong and provides the required substance which holds the team together towards achieving the set goals and objectives (Francis, 2012). At the same time effective time management skills are important for mangers to perform the task. I would like to emphasis more on the aspect of time management. Literature defin itions With respect to the definition of time management, there are many different definitions as per different authors. However most of the authors referred to Lakein (1973) who said that time management involve a process which determines the need sets the goals which are to be achieved, planning and prioritising the task which are required in the process of achieving the goals. Therefore according to Elacqua and Jex, 1999; Davis, 2000; Macan, 1994, 1996; Macan et al., 1990; Mudrack, 1997) time management has been referred to as a technique used to manage time; a technique which can be used for effective use the many different task which are required Orpen, (1994) Slaven and Totterdell, (1993); Woolfolk & Woolfolk, (1986); according to

Humorits Essay Example for Free

Humorits Essay Some men see things as they are and ask why. Others dream things that never were and why not†, said by George Bernard Shaw (miscellaneous quotes). In society today, many people go about with things and don’t ask why they do such matter. In the article, â€Å"Corn-pone opinions† by Mark Twain, he uses a good example: he states that â€Å"fashion has established itself: it is admired, now, and no one laughs†. In other words, fashion is created, and people go along with it and never ask why they do so. Alain de Botton argues that humorists are not to entertain but â€Å"to convey with impunity messages that might be dangerous or impossible to state directly†. In agreement, humorists play a vital role in society. As an illustration to how humorists play a vital role in society is in the article â€Å"A Modest Proposal† by Jonathan Swift, who creates a plan for eating Irish babies. Swift, is criticizing the English for their abuses against the Irish. Swift thought that eating the Irish babies would solve the â€Å"Irish problem†. However, the plan is ridiculous because it is used to describe how the Irish is being treated. The meaning thats being read in the article is that English dont value the Irish life. Instead of Swift saying so, he uses the comparison of eating babies and the abusing of Irish people. For this purpose, criticisms are being made and people dont realize them but they send a strong message. Another example of how humorists play a vital role is society is in the article ‘Corn-pone Opinions†, Twain shows another example by stating â€Å"Our table manners, and company manners and street manners change from time to time, but the changes are not reasoned out; we merely notice and conformed†. In this quote Twain tries to describe the fact that many things are changing and no one take the time to notice it; they just gone along with it. In addition, society does not realize things that is going on. They just feel that when something is being said or done that it may be the right thing so they just go along with it because they feel they need self-approval from one another and never notice that it is affecting our society.

Reflections Ethical Issues On Abortion Philosophy Essay

Reflections Ethical Issues On Abortion Philosophy Essay Society has been up in arms over the issue of abortion for years, and will continue to be for years to come. There are those who defend the laws against abortion and those who believe that abortion is perfectly within a womans right to have the procedure performed. What then is hubbub about? It all boils down to what is morally and ethically right. There are those who argue that abortion is morally reprehensible and should be prohibited; and those who try to abstain or avoid casting any judgment on the morality of this practice. There are those who say the laws are just because they prohibit actions that are morally permissible; others oppose these laws without thought of the moral issue at all and argue that the individual have a right to choose for themselves whether or not to indulge in the practice. Abortion, as we all know, is the unnatural termination or an end to a pregnancy before birth that results in the death of a fetus. The question then becomes how is it determined how abortion can be morally right or wrong if it cannot be determined when the essence of personhood begins, and is abortion in fact murder (Warren)? Some abortions occur spontaneously or naturally because the fetus does not develop normally. Others occur because of a trauma or injury to the mother which prevents the pregnancy from developing full term. Also, there are those that are clinically induced because either the pregnancy presents a risk to the woman or is unwanted. An induced abortion is one of the most ethical and philosophical issues of the century. In the United States, the debate over abortion has brought about many legal court and state legislative battles. These battles have also been the source of violent confrontations at clinics and anti-abortion rallies. There are also several other methods used in the abortion process: the morning after pill that is taken within seventy-two hours of unprotected sexual intercourse and another pill taken twelve hours later. The purpose of this pill is to prohibit the fetus from further development at the early stages of conception, or at the point where the sperm fertilizes the egg (Schmidt). So, when does the fertilized egg become a fetus? Is it when the fetus can react to pain? Is it at conception, or, is it when the actual birth occurs? Evidence conflicts, with several physicians holding that the fetus is capable of feeling pain sometime in the first trimester (Schmidt, 1984), and medical researchers, notably from the American Medical Association, maintaining that the neuroanatomical requirements for such experience do not exist until the 29th week of gestation. Pain receptors begin to appear in the seventh week of gestation (Schmidt, 1984). The thalamus, the part of the brain which receives signals from the nervous system and then relays them to the cerebral cortex, starts to form in the fifth week. However, other anatomical structures involved in the nociceptive process are not present until much later in gestation. Links between the thalamus and cerebral cortex form around the 23rd week. There has been suggestion that a fetus cannot feel pain at all, under the premi se that it requires mental development that only occurs outside the uterus Some of the most common arguments abortion supporters use when confronting abortion opponents is when does a life begin? When does a fertilized egg become a fetus? When does a fetus become a baby? Since there is no scientifically provable answer, it boils down to religious beliefs and not scientific proof. Don Marquis argues that abortion is wrong and immoral. That the killing of a fetus is equivalent to the killing of any human being is morally wrong (Marquis). Marquis argues, is that abortion destroys ones possible future. It is for this very reason that it is morally wrong to take our lives. All our activities, enjoyments, etc., are suddenly non-realizable because someone has taken our lives. This is, he says, the natural property that explains why it is wrong to kill humans Singer states that arguments for or against abortion should be based on utilitarian calculation which weighs the preferences of a mother against the preferences of the fetus. In his view a preference is anything sought to be obtained or avoided; all forms of benefit or harm caused to a being correspond directly with the satisfaction or frustration of one or more of its preferences. Since a capacity to experience the sensations of suffering or satisfaction is a prerequisite to having any preferences at all, and a fetus, at least up to around eighteen weeks, says Singer, has no capacity to suffer or feel satisfaction, it is not possible for such a fetus to hold any preferences at all. In a utilitarian calculation, there is nothing to weigh against a mothers preferences to have an abortion. Therefore, abortion is morally permissible (Singer, 1993). An individuals position on the complex ethical, moral, philosophical, biological, and legal is-sues is often related to his or her value system. Opinions of abortion may be best described as being a combination of beliefs on its morality, and beliefs on the responsibility, ethical scope, and proper extent of governmental authorities in public policy. Religious ethics also has an influence upon both personal opinion and the greater debate over abortion. Let us, as an example of an ethical dilemma, consider Shauntay. Shauntay is a soon to be graduated senior at the New York School of the Arts. All of her young life has been struggle. Hungry, and sometimes near homeless, shes lived for eighteen years from one project to another. Shauntay knew the only way out of this situation was through hard work and dedication. Fortunately for her, there were those who believed in her as much as she in herself. Dance became her escape. Her hard work and determination finally paid off. Upon graduation, Shauntay was to receive a full ride scholarship to Julliard in the fall. All her life, it has been her dream to become a professional dancer and get away from the life of poverty to which she had been born. She has long had the desire to travel and see the world, an opportunity that her parents had never been able to give. However, just after her senior prom, and before graduation Shauntay received what to her was the most devastating news imaginable. You see, for several mornings she had experienced bouts of nausea and weakness. At first, not thinking much of it, she thought it was the flu or a stomach virus. Also, in reflecting she remembered she had not had a menstrual cycle this month. Concern that the virus would not go away, Shauntay went to the doctor. After her examination, the doctor returned and told her that she was going to be a mother. In the blink of an eye, all of her hopes and dreams seemed to fly out the window. What was she to do? How could she tell her parents? How would she tell those parents, whose dreams of her having a chance to grow were just as vivid as her own that, she was pregnant? How could she give up what she had worked so hard to achieve? How could she keep, love and care for this child that would have taken so much from her, and possibly condemned her to a life of further impoverishment? How would she take care of a baby? Where would she live? What could she do? What should she do? She had been taught that abortion was morally wrong. She had been taught that abortion was in the eyes of God, the same as murder. This was her dilemma. The idea of liberalizing abortion laws became culturally salient during the late 1960s, and several state legislatures passed relatively permissive abortion laws during this period. The trend toward gradual liberalization was interrupted by the Supreme Courts landmark 1973 decision Roe v. Wade, which held virtually all state abortion laws to be unconstitutional. Although public opinion generally moved in a more prochoice direction following Roe, the decision mobilized opposition from several, often religious, sources. Many cultural and religious conservatives opposed legal abortion because legal abortion was thought to encourage sexual promiscuity by reducing the risks of sexual activity outside of marriage. Another early source of opposition to legal abortion came from the African-American community. Several African-American leaders denounced legal abortion as genocide and suggested that easy access to abortion would ultimately be used by whites to limit societal responsibility to care for children born into poverty. When engaging in culturally and ethically controversial topics like abortion, it has been found that most people latch onto a specific idea and use it to counter every argument offered against their view. For example, one in favor of abortion might be unwilling to question the fact that a woman has a right to her own body, (which means that a fetus has no such rights). On the other hand, one who is against abortion might be unwilling to go beyond the claim that abortion is simply murder (Warren; 1973). It may well be that abortion is murder, but the debate will not be won by simply asserting that such is the case. The reason for so much of the confusion on the issue is our human tendency to accept or reject basic moral principles without adequate examination all boils down to agreeing to disagree. Failure to conduct such an examination means that we improperly accept or reject principles that ultimately determine the direction of life. One need only look at the radically different presentations regarding human nature found in Plato, Aristotle, Aquinas, Hobbes, Locke, Freud, Marx, Hegel, Hume, Sartre, Kierkegaard, and a host of others to see the importance of this issue. In the final analysis, who stands to judge what is morally right or ethically wrong? Is not killing by any other name still killing?

Analysis of Reading Lolita in Tehran by Azar Nafisi

Analysis of Reading Lolita in Tehran by Azar Nafisi The real Azar Nafisi Reading Lolita in Tehran is a book written by Azar Nafisi and talks about the struggles of a woman was born in Iran moved to the United States to study abroad. She got most of her education from the US and the UK. She moved back to Iran in the late 1970’s and she found here country was in a revolution and war was everywhere. The book it divided into four parts Lolita, Gatsby, James, and Austen each tells a part of the story and her life. She goes on to explain what has happened to her country and the teachings that she has done. Nafisi used to teach at different schools in Iran but the school board found her teachings wrong and expelled her. She was fed up so she got some of her best students and brought them over her house each week to discuss about all sorts of different books. Everyone there used the classes as an escape from reality of Iran’s rules and control because they were able to discus about all they wanted and to let out what they felt about their dreams wishes without anyone judging them, Since they were all woman and woman’s had no rights in Islam. One moment I the book that stood out to me in part one was when Nafisi’s mother, a person who is nothing like a Muslim woman marries a proper Muslim man they somehow work it out. Her mother loves to wear a chador because she feels is something very special to her. What gave me a shock was when the mother taught her daughter English instead of Arabic and that the father allows her. Back then woman weren’t forced to wear a chador so u can tell how much she loved her husband. During the time Nafisi was teaching the seven students at her house why she was so shocked to see her students come out of her shell or in her words â€Å"I could not get over the shock of seeing them shed their mandatory veils and robes and burst into color† (Azar Nafisi 5) She wanted to teach what the schools deemed wrong so she got her seven best students and used the teachings to release all of their ideas, emotions, and frustrations with each other as they discussed books and other literary works. In the article titled â€Å"The book club† by Sam Munson she explains how when Nafisis was teaching in the schools the government started to decide what was allowed and didn’t like what Nafisis was teachings so she got expelled and that is what got her to make this small club with some of her students. Soon each one of here students started to open up to each other â€Å"Gradually, each one gained an outline and a shape, becoming her own inimitable self† (Az ar Nafisi 5) In part two of the book you start to see all the different type of personality’s that her students have and how special they are. It also shows that Nafisis knew them very well before she picked them. She let her students be the judge and jury of the books even though she knew the answer. Even if the students didn’t talk for the books she got them to start thinking for themselves and not just follow someone. In Iran they only allowed works from Tehran to be read. Nafisis got the books and asked her students to evaluate them based on their writing and literature they also focuses a lot of their time on Gatsby to review and learn from it. Why was Nafisis having trouble with her marriage? Her father went to jail so she was left alone and during that time she said â€Å"I was insecure enough to marry on the spur of a moment, before my eighteenth birthday† (Azar Nafisi 83) She married a man who â€Å"wasn’t like us† (Azar Nafisi 83) she thought of him as he was full of himself and that he was crazy jealous this prompted Nafisis to want a divorce with him. The only way she could get a divorce was to get the approval of her father and he agreed when she said she would not sue for alimony. In the article â€Å"Lolita in Tehran Author Goes Silent† by Madeline Brand said that Nafisis had suffered all her life. Her mother died when she was so young and her father was put in jail. That might be the reason to why she wanted to marry at such a young age. Because the author is from Iran you can see a lot of the connections made in the story. The struggles she faces and how she overcomes them and also when she moved to the United States she sees the world different since it’s a new place. She then goes back to Iran and it’s under war and she can’t teach anymore since she got expelled. It is related to the novel in a big way since she has a lot of experience with her home country and her background of a hard life, how her mom died when she was young and her father put in jail. She was left alone. In the biographic article titled â€Å"Azar Nafisi† by Ed. Jeffrey W. Hunter he wrote a wonderful article on her struggles and her biographical of her young age and what she went through. The tone in the novel is morel like rebellious because the woman are under oppression and they want to be free so they try to go â€Å"against the man† most of the time and it relates a lot with the characters since most of them are female. Nafisi especially, she teaches at a school then the school no longer allows her to teach there because of her content so in order to rebel she gets some of her best students who are also female and brings them over to her hose for the weekend to discuss the books and topics that she was discussing when she was still teaching. The article â€Å"Reading Lolita in Tehran: A Memoir in Books. (Arts Letters)† by Christopher Byrd he states â€Å"Nafisi convincingly argues, pose an even greater threat to a despotic orthodoxy than any open display of political rebellion.† Showing her rebellious nature, she doesn’t want to feel inferior and the tone of the novel is set around not being oppressed she shows it a lot in the story. The relationship about this novel and the topic of literature is that in the novel Nafisi Loves to teach and on her first day of school asked if fiction is even important in literature. The way it’s related is by how the novel is being presented it’s not just a story it tells the story of a person and the hardships they went thru. The story itself is an expression of individual thought and the feeling of accomplishing from the creative process. Authors wish to share their experiences with their novels and books, their understanding and observations. It’s like making music you share what you are feeling using words in a song. In conclusion the book Reading Lolita in Tehran was a good read, it talked about the struggles Nafisi had in her life how she became a teacher moved to the united states then came back to her home town of Iran to find out it’s at war and she can’t teach anymore so she starts her own â€Å"club† where she picked some of her best students and discussed with them about books. It also talks about some parts of The Great Gatsby in part II and the reactions it had with the people from her weekend club. This book was interesting and I would read it again if I had to. Work Cited Nafisi, Azar. Reading Lolita in Tehran: A Memoir in Books, 2003. Kindle file. Books, Reading Lolita in Tehran: A Memoir in, and Sam Munson. The book club. Commentary  116.2 (2003): 72+. Literature Resource Center. Web. 26 Apr. 2014. Lolita in Tehran Author Goes Silent. Day To Day 29 Dec. 2008. Literature Resource Center.  Web. 26 Apr. 2014. Azar Nafisi. Contemporary Literary Criticism. Ed. Jeffrey W. Hunter. Vol. 313. Detroit: Gale,  2012. Literature Resource Center. Web. 26 Apr. 2014. Byrd, Christopher. Reading Lolita in Tehran: A Memoir in Books. (Arts Letters). The Wilson  Quarterly 27.3 (2003): 126+. Literature Resource Center. Web. 26 Apr. 2014.

Male Superiority within Domestic Life :: essays research papers

Male Superiority within Domestic Life   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Throughout the book To the Lighthouse by Virginia Woolf, there are many burdens upon relationships in the storyline. One such burden is that of male superiority; through the belief of male superiority relationships are stressed because males constantly need to prove that they are better then females. This stress causes problems within marriages and affects the domestic life of husbands and wives. The unspoken problem between the sexes causes tension and affects thoughts shown within internal monologues more then it directly affects events.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Men in this novel need sympathy from the women in order to prove their superiority because by getting sympathy from a woman the man is acting superior over the woman. Mr. Ramsey proves this fact when he works to receive Lily’s sympathy. This is shown when Lily thinks, â€Å"You shan’t touch your canvas, he seemed to say, bearing down on her, until you’ve given me what I want from you† (150); about Mr. Ramsey as he approaches her while she is painting. In this scene what Mr. Ramsey wants from Lily is sympathy and he acts as if he is in control over Lily and therefore can force her to give him sympathy. Eventually, Lily gives Mr. Ramsay the sympathy he wants which is shown when she thinks to herself, â€Å"Why, at this completely inappropriate moment, when he was stooping over her shoe, should she be so tormented with sympathy for him that, as she stooped too, the blood rushed to her face and thinking of her callousness (she had called h im a play-actor) she felt her eyes swell and tingle with tears?† (154) and thus feels sympathy for Mr. Ramsay even when she decidedly did not want to. Not only does Lily feel sympathy for Mr. Ramsay but she also feels bad about thinking negatively about him. Lily’s feeling of guilt shows Mr. Ramsay being superior to her that is in turn an example of male supremacy.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  During the dinner table discussion, Mr. Tansley shows male supremacy when he thinks, â€Å"he was not going to talk the kind of rot these people wanted him to talk. He was not going to be condescended by these silly women† (85). Mr. Tansley’s thoughts in this quotation show that he is putting himself above women by staying independent of their conversation therefore showing that they have no power over him. Mr. Tansley continues to exhibit male supremacy when his need to assert himself arises.

Conservative Legislation and Trade Union Power Essay -- Essays Papers

Conservative Legislation (during the 1980s and early 1990’s) and Trade Union Power Trade Unions can be defined as: ‘ Organisations of workers set up to improve the status, pay and conditions of employment of its members’. Salaman, ‘Industrial Relations’, P77 From the end of the second world war, and up until the 1970’s trade unionism was continually growing. By 1979, 57.3% of all people employed were members of trade unions. Annual abstract Statistics, 1990, ‘Industrial relations’, M.P. Jackson, 1991, P57 ‘Trade unionism may be seen as a social response to industrialisation and capitalism’ Salaman, Industrial relations, P79 In the early days of trade unionism, there was a direct need for workers to be represented, in areas such as manufacturing, there were little channels of communication and as a result of this workers had little or no representation. The collective bargaining approach, is a system used by trade unions to regulate industrial conflict. If conflict arises, the collective bargaining approach allows the trade unions to come together in a public forum to discuss any conflicting issues. The collective barganing approach in Trade Unionism assumes that the Trade Union is bargaining for the collective group rather than individuals. The collective bargaining group is given the opportunity to resolve any conflicting issues and in some cases but not all can prevent disputes from occurring. Harbison concludes that collective bargaining ‘Provides a drainage channel for worker dis satisfaction’ Harbison in Industrial Relations, M.P.Jackson In 1970, Britain saw the return of the Conservative government under the power of Edward Heath. After the minors strike, the Conservative government lost power and Britain reverted back to a Labour government. After the ‘winter of discontent’ in 1979, Britain once again saw the return of the Conservative government, however this time it was under the power of Margaret Thatcher. Previous to Margaret Thatcher, the government had always seen their main focus to be the achievement of ‘full employment’, a solution which in times of 1979 could prove somewhat impossible. The new Conservative government saw their future, as one of creating more jobs and encouraging greater success in competitive product markets, this was in an attempt to achieve full employment. The main priority of the new Conservati... ...strial Relations in Britain Edited by: Geoge Sayers Bain Published : 1983 Basil Blackwell Publisher Ltd, Oxford 2. The Origins of British Industrial Relations By: Keith Burgess Published: 1979 Croom Helm Ltd, London 3. The Free Economy and the Strong State- The Politics of Thatcher, second edition By: Andrew Gamble Published: 1994 MacMillan Press Ltd, Hampshire 4. Contemporary British Industrial Relations By: S Kessler & F Bayliss Published: 1988 MacMillan Press Ltd, London 5. Human Resource Maanagement Rhetorics and Realities By: Karen Legge Published: 1995 MacMillan Press Ltd, Hampshire 6. Workplace Industrial Relations in Transition By: Millard et al. Published: 1997 Dartmouth Publishing Co., Aldershot 7. Industrial Relations in the Future By: Poole et al. Published: 1984 Routledge & Kegon Paul Plc, London 8. Human Resource Management: A Strategic Introduction, second edition By: G Salaman & C Maby Published: 1988 Blackwell, Oxford 9. Industrial Relations: Theory & Practice By: Micheal Salaman Published: Prentise & Hall, Hemel Hamstead

School Nutrition: When Capitalism Causes Obesity Essay -- Nutrition

A dollop of tomato paste - that is all that this is required for an other-wise high-sodium, high-fat, and high-grease food product to be labeled as a vegetable as voted by a lobbyist-controlled congress in November of 2011. Pizza, as it turns out, is now considered a vegetable by school nutrition standards (â€Å"A Veggie Pizza†). It is obvious, then, that such as decision was not perpetuated nor endorsed by activists campaigning for proper nutrition within in the school cafeteria. It was lobbyists, most likely independent or large business caterers, who gave the decision the political and monetary boost it needed. But by allowing congress to make decisions based on lobbyist endorsement, pressure, and financial supports such as this one, America is simultaneously over-feeding its children, depriving its children of key nutrients, and establishing an epidemic of obesity. The blame, however, lies not just within the schools, parents, congress, or society, but upon a conglomerat ion of these things. Surely, it would be folly to believe otherwise. One thing is clear: America’s nutritional standards for school children must change. With this need for change in mind, citizens must no longer ignore the pressing empirical data of the detrimental state of America’s contemporary nutritional standards. Currently, most school cafeterias provide students nutritional needs by relying on processed foods (sugar, white flour, oil, artificial ingredients) and animal products whilst barely delivering any whole produce. In fact, most of the fruit-and-vegetable nutrition comes from byproducts such as juice concentrates or stocks. The Dietary Guidelines for Americans recommends decreasing saturated fats, sugar and sodium, while increasing whole grains, ... ...tion and to be consistent with what they are teaching to avoid hypocrisy. Students, when faced with nutrition education, will observe the hypocrisy, and conclude that nutrition is not important when everything they see around them contradicts the message their teachers are trying to send. School administrators cannot, and most likely will not, be willing to endorse this message if it is not cost-efficient. It is then up to society, congress, and the people of the U.S. to see nutrition and their children not as another business expense, but as the methods to create a standard of healthy children, regardless of the financial impact. Works Cited "School Meals Need to Get Healthier: Report." Healthday. 29 OCT 2009: n. page. Web. 14 Dec. 2011. Shah, Nirvi. "School-Meals Makeover Stirs The Pot." Education Week 30.27 (2011): 1,. ERIC. Web. 7 Dec. 2011.

Pipeline Risk Analysis

Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas Pipeline Projects in Pakistan S. Mubin1 and G. Mubin2 1 2 Civil Engineering Department University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore, Pakistan Instructor, VTI, PVTC, Govt. of Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan Abstract In order to cater for its high energy demand, Pakistan is planning to import natural gas through pipelines from neighboring countries. For fully utilizing the imported gas, providing it to end customers, the infrastructure of gas pipeline needs to be developed.Therefore, huge investment has been done and proposed in this sector in coming future. Considering geological, topographical, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country, there is added risk of earthquake, landslides and floods. Due to current geopolitical situation there is a persistent threat of unrest and terrorism in the country. Instable Government policies, high rate of inflation, rapid change in material prices ar e also important risk factors.All these factors make the situation very complex in quantifying the risk especially for a project in which the risk impact factor rises exponentially in case of risk occurrence. In this paper, most appropriate risk classification is made based on technological, organizational, political, natural climatic, security and environmental risk factors. Effort has been made to device a simpler risk management methodology to analyze and manage risks of gas pipeline project. In the proposed risk management model Monte Carlo simulation has been used to identify critical risks.Keywords: Oil and Gas pipelines; Risk Analysis and Management; Monte Carlo simulation 1. Introduction Oil and gas sector is considered as back bone of any country’s economy. In Pakistan industrialization, agriculture, transportation and even domestic utilization of the energy depends on oil and gas sector. Almost 80 % of power generation is oil and gas based (50% gas and 30% oil) [1]. For efficient energy production there is a need of efficient transportation system (main and distribution network of pipeline) in the country, which is not sufficient to fulfill the country’s requirement.As per World Bank Report only 21% of the total population of the country has access on natural gas. Due to the growing demands, pipeline network is expanding vigorously as during the last 10 years the network of main and distribution gas pipeline was expanded by 85% [2]. Currently Pakistan is meeting its gas demand by internal sources but by the year 2011 the difference between country’s gas demand and supply will be 1. 2 Bcfd which will rise to 3. 1 Bcfd by the year 2015 and ultimately to 11. 1 Bcfd by the year 2025 [3].To fill the gap between demands and supply Pakistan is planning to import natural gas through pipeline from neighboring countries. Options of Turkmenistan, Iran and Qatar are available for gas import. Figure 1 shows that route of future cross country pipeline. In Pakistan, expected investment in pipeline construction is within range of 7 to10 billion dollars during the next 5-10 years [4]. Structure and characteristics of risk are different in different mega project such as Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline due to multi-party involvement from different geographic locations and regulatory structure [5].These mega projects may be termed as international projects defined as those where the owner and/or contractor may be from a country different to that of where the project is situated typically involve a wider range of issues than domestic projects and in effect, moving outside of one’s usual business jurisdiction interjects many unknowns. Factors impacting owner investment decisions with international capital facilities can be quite complex and may vary significantly from region to region and project to project [18].Nature and impact of risk are different in different stages of project life cycle of pipeline projects. For most e ffective risk management it is recommended to plan, analyze and manage risk in all phases of project life cycle i. e. initializing, concept clearance and feasibility, design, construction and operation. Understanding the relationship between risk Corresponding Author: S. Mubin ([email  protected] edu. pk) Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan management and project phases for capital projects can be a difficult task.For instance, some risks are negligible in construction phase but are of vital importance in design phase such as earthquake. While dealing with risk management of international projects, which are often first or one-time efforts and project progress and phasing decisions can be isolated from risk management. For most international projects, different participants are responsible for control of the various phases of a project’s life cycle. In many cases, the project owner is largely responsible for program analysis, a thirdparty is often hired to design (engineering), construct, manage and control to meet the initial onstraints set by the owner [6]. Contractor is hired to construct the project, which turns the results over to the owner for operations or production. Structuring projects with distinct phases and responsibilities can increase risk by isolating the project participants in such a manner that minimal attention is given to overarching project concerns. Individual project participants become concerned with only their own project risks and either willingly or unwillingly try to transfer these risks to other project participants.To limit the scope of this paper the discussion is confined to the risks occurring during construction and operation phase. Figure 1: The routes of future gas pipeline project in the region. The uncertainty in undertaking construction of a pipeline project comes from many sources and often involves many participants in the project. Since each participant tries to m inimize its own risk, the conflicts among various participants can be detrimental to the project. Systematic risk management of project activities is not fully recognized as valuable by practitioners in the construction industry.No common view of risk exists since the owner, investor, designer, and constructor have differing project goals and objectives, and historically adverse relationships are common. In recent years, the concept of â€Å"risk sharing/risk assignment† contracts has gained acceptance in pipeline design and construction. The distribution of risk between the client and contractor tends to overshadow effective management strategies and investigations show that contactors and owners give minimal consideration to risks outside the realm of their own concerns.The Federation Internationale des Ingenieurs Conseils (the International Federation of Consulting Engineers, FIDIC) and the International European Construction Federation (FIEC) publish two well-known and wi dely-accepted forms of conditions of contract for international construction projects (the Red and Yellow Books) that include provisions on the fair and equitable risk sharing between the owner and the contractor as well as risk responsibilities, liabilities, indemnity, and insurance [7].Considering technological point of view geographical conditions of Pakistan are very complex for the construction of pipeline projects. Almost 50 % of the total area of Pakistan is mountainous or semi-mountainous and in rest of the 23 Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 area there is wide network of rivers and canals (Figure 2). Therefore, for linear structure like pipelines there are extensive crossings and sometimes extreme site conditions are met, where degree of risk is increased as compare to normal conditions of construction.On the other hand, risks during operation of pipelines have different characteristics depending upon the strength and weakness of operating organization, topographi cal, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country where project is executed. While dealing with natural risks, the geology and geographical characteristics of the regions must be thoroughly studied. For instance, the two continental plates i. e. Indian and Eurasian meet in Pakistan which highly impact on the eodynamics of the region which are the major source of earthquake [8]. In monsoon period there is high probability of floods. Typical topography, steep slopes, high rainfall in a specific period (JuneAugust) and high temperature (melting glaciers) are the dominating factors for intensifying the frequency of floods in a particular year. Considering geopolitics of the regions there is a persistent threat of unrest and terrorism.The economic instability has added the problem due to that there is frequent change in economic parameters. All these are in fact the potential risks for any construction project especially oil and gas pipelines in which risk are multiplied many fold and there is exponential rise in damage in case of occurrence of one or more risks resulting huge human and environmental losses. Figure 2: Map of Pakistan showing important geological and geographical features of the country . Classification of Risks For effective Risk Management, risk classification is of prime importance. There are many kinds of classifications have been made so far [10]. In general, risks associated with pipeline projects may be classified as broadly: †¢ †¢ Risk during Construction Risk during Operation However, in operation, risk are slightly different, in which emphasis is given to avoid those factor with hurdle safe and smooth operation/functioning of pipeline.Usually, in mega projects such as cross country trunk pipelines investment risk are considered most import followed by the security risk. More precisely, risk during construction and operation of oil and gas pipelines can be divided into following categories (Table 1): The type and causes of risk in each class are different. Risks during construction are time susceptible and the probability of occurrence of different risk are time dependent, more is the duration of project higher are the probabilities.These are generally related to execution of work processes, material availability, manpower, finances (budget), time frame, accidental, legal and environmental. 24 i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. viii. Political risk Socio-economical risk Technical risk Organizational risk Natural catastrophic risk Financial risk (investment risk) Safety and security risk Environment risk Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Table1: Risk Classifications No 1. Category Risk Political risks Unstable Govt. olicies Change in economic parameters Breach in contractual relationship Unrealistic cost baseline and financial delay Inefficient communication Accident during construction or operation Earthquake Risk Factors Change in labour policy Rise in inflati on and material prices Loss of venture or partnership Exchange rate risk and rise in interest rate Inefficient and conventional technologies Not use of HSE policies and standard floods Damage to surrounding environment Delay in approvals from regulatory bodies Seasonal unavailability of labour Unrealistic SWOT analysis Strikes, lockout, lawlessness Change in economic policies and tax system Fine or compensation 2. Socio-economical risks Organizational risks 3. 4. Investment risk Disinvestment from market Insufficient resources and equipment Terrorism or war Strong credit policy Quality risk and rework Human error (Damage or loss of machine or human resource) Weather conditions e. g. humidity, precipitation Damage to ecology and wildlife 5. Technological risk 6. Security risk 7. Natural and climatic risk Landslide, hurricanes Depletion of hydrocarbon resources 8. Damage to Environmental risk natural resources 2. 1 Political Risk The effect of country’s policies on the project directly impact on project success or failure.During the policy making process, technical factors are usually ignored and policies may be set in a way that operation of a project may not be economical or trade offing. This factor is also important in unstable governments, where there is more risk of change of economic, petroleum or labor policies, which are directly related to the pipeline projects. Delays can occur due to laborious and detailed procedure for approval from public safety regulation department, environmental regulation agencies and oil and gas regulatory bodies. Public health, safety and environmental concern are more important in the western countries as compare to developing countries like Pakistan. Policy and political risks are more concerned in international project risks, such as cross border pipeline projects.In international projects these risks 25 are sometimes overlooked or assessed haphazardly. Such risks include war, civil war, terrorism, expropriation, in ability to transfer currency across borders, and trade credit defaults by foreign or domestic customers [6]. Although risks such as civil unrest and economic stability are typically outside the scope, understanding and dealing with these risks are critical for companies working internationally. A 2001 study by AON Trade Credit discovered that, in the Fortune 1000, only about 26 percent of companies had in place systematic and consistent methodologies to assess political risks [6]. 2. 2 Socio-economical riskSocio-economical conditions further reinforced the climate of uncertainty with high inflation and interest rates. The deregulation of financial institutions has also generated unanticipated problems related to the financing of construction. These risks can be forecasted and linked with the economic indicators of the country. For instance, In Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Pakistan, the economic indicators are tending to grow regardless of the political instability in t he country. The GDP of the country was 8. 4% prior to 2005 earthquake, which declined down to GDP 5. 6 or less currently. Earthquake and floods during the last two year costed government approximately $5. 4 B and expected to spend more $3. 6bn till 2010.Overall there is growth in the market and potential for foreign investment in construction sector [1]. 2. 3 Technical risk The risks related to technological problems are familiar to the design/construct professions which have some degree of control over this category. However, because of rapid advances in new technologies which present new problems to designers and constructors, technological risk has become greater in many instances. Certain design assumptions which have served the professions well in the past may become obsolete in present time. Site conditions, particularly subsurface conditions which always present some degree of uncertainty, can create an even greater degree of uncertainty during construction.Because constructi on procedures may not have been fully anticipated, the design may have to be modified after construction has begun. An example of facilities which have encountered such uncertainty is the nuclear power plant, and many owners, designers and contractors have suffered for undertaking such projects. There is a need of technological advancement to overcome this risk. statistics, geological surveys, sub surface investigation through various method has given rise to the development of such techniques which can not only quantify frequency of occurring of such phenomenon in a particular region but also their impact and destruction. Northern areas of Pakistan are considered in high seismic zone [8] particularly after incidence of 8th Oct. 005 earthquake, in which more than 86000 people died and one million got injured and 3 million became homeless, this factor is highly considered in planning, feasibility, design and construction of the any construction project in the region [9]. The major re ason is the plate tectonic motion in Himalaya, northern part of Pakistan. This plate tectonic motion is due to the uplift of Euro Asian plate by Indian plate (two plates are meeting in Pakistan) 2. 6 Investment risk Pipelines are mega project. A lot of funding is required for the completion and safe operation of pipelines. Investment has been always a prime risk in construction project due to multi party involvement.But especially for the international pipeline project, this is always risk of payback and trade offing, because of the bilateral and diplomatic relationships. 2. 7 Safety and security risk In a broader sense, safety and security risks include factors due to that loss or damage of resources (manpower, machinery and financial resources) or facilities (pipeline, pipeline crossing, gas compressor station) can occur during construction or operation phase of a pipeline. It is very often that loss of work time, machinery and manpower occur due to accident on side because of the negligence of some worker. These risks involve all actions (accident, malfunctioning, terrorism, war etc) due to that loss of resources nd production of pipeline can occur. These risks are more likely to occur during operation phase however, these can be occurring in construction stage as well. To cater these risk to occur Health safety policy is strengthen so that to minimize on-site and offsite accidents during construction. It is generally accepted that the pipeline are the target in terrorists’ attacks and wars. For, instance, history prevails that in last five years the total terrorist attacks made on the pipelines in Pakistan were 103. It may be the result of internal political situation of the country but anywhere in the world this factor of risk is considered to be very important.For safe operations, state of the art methodology and technology has been developed which ensure safe exploitation of pipeline, which include remote sensing, Geographical Information System (GIS) and mapping techniques, Light detection and ranging (LIDAR), Global positioning system (GPS), data acquisition (SCADA) and In-line inspection (ILI) etc. 26 2. 4 Organizational risk The risks related to organization and organizational relationships may appear to be unnecessary but are quite real. Strained relationships may develop between various organizations involved in the design/construct process. When problems occur, discussions often center on responsibilities rather than project needs at a time when the focus should be on solving the problems.Cooperation and communication between the parties are discouraged for fear of the effects of impending litigation. This barrier to communication results from the illconceived notion that uncertainties resulting from technological problems can be eliminated by appropriate contract terms. The net result has been an increase in the costs of constructed facilities. 2. 5 Natural catastrophic risk Natural catastrophic risks are those on w hich there is no control. They are usually the ‘act of God’ and can occur at anytime and anywhere. Earthquake, floods, hurricanes are the common examples of these risks. However, due to the development of the science and technology in the field of simulation and modeling,Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan 2. 8 Environmental risk Environmental concerns and awareness is increasing everywhere. The worldwide environmental protection movement has contributed to the uncertainty for construction because of the inability to know what will be required and how long it will take to obtain approval from the regulatory agencies. This delay in approval practically influence on total costs of the project. Public safety regulations have similar effects. The situation constantly change guidelines for engineers, constructors and owners, as projects move through the stages of planning to construction due to the change in govt. policies.These moving targets add a significant new dimension of uncertainty which can make it virtually impossible to schedule and complete work at budgeted cost . Risk management reduces the impact of negative risks and enhances positive risk to make opportunities. However, limiting our scope in this section to negative risks, risk management may be defined as a method to reduce the consequences of negative events (risk) tend to occur during construction and operation of pipeline by developing mechanisms and strategies (risk transfer, risk reduction, risk distribution, avoidance, risk enhancement) compatible to the system environment in which project is executed. The strategy of risk management is based on risk analysis results for a particular project.According to Project Management Institute (PMI) approach of risk management [11] the process includes: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Risk management planning Risk identification Qualitative risk analysis Quantitative risk analysis Risk reduction strategies 3. Ri sk Management Process Generally risk analysis and management had not been applied in construction industry and especially in pipeline projects. It is comparatively new area for pipeline projects, which is rapidly advancing due to the involvement of non native client or contractor. However, the concept of risk analysis and management is getting fame in pipeline project due to involvement of multinational contractor/organizations.Basically risk management deals with management of positive and negative events which occurs during realization of projects. 3. 1 Risk management planning Risk management process (PMI approach) starts with the planning of risk management, which includes a detailed risk management planning. In Risk management planning the proposed course of action for risk analysis is set. The input, output and process are shown in the table 2. Table 2: Process showing Risk Management Planning [19] Input Organizational environmental factor Organizational process of assets Proj ect scope management Project management plan Planning meeting and analysis Risk Management Plan Planning course of action Process Out put 3. 2 Risk Identification processFor effective risk analysis and management the identification of risk is very important carefully such that no important factor is left which can negatively impact on the project. The risk indemnification process input and output are shown in table 3, which include the following: Information Gathering Techniques: Examples of information gathering techniques used in identifying risk can include brainstorming, Delphi techniques, interviewing, root cause identification and SWOT (Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) 27 analysis. Brainstorming is important data gathering technique for risk identification in which a group of team members or subject-matter experts (design, construction, purchase, finance etc) together identify expected risks.Delphi is another technique of information gathering used as a way t o reach a consensus of experts on a subject. Experts on the subject participate in this technique anonymously. A facilitator uses a questionnaire to solicit ideas Project Documentation Reviews: For risk identification project documentation are reviewed, including plans, assumptions, prior project files, and other information. The quality of the plans, as well as Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 consistency between those plans and with the project requirements and assumptions, can be indicators of risk in the project. Assumptions Analysis: Every pipeline project is conceived and developed based on a set of hypotheses, scenarios, or assumptions.Assumptions analysis is a tool that explores the validity of assumptions as they apply to the project. It identifies risks to the project from inaccuracy, inconsistency, or incompleteness of assumptions. Table 3: Process of Risk Identification Input Organizational environmental factor Organizational process of assets Project scope man agement Project management plan Risk Management plan Checklist Analysis: Risk identification checklists can be developed based on historical information and knowledge that has been accumulated from previous similar projects and from other sources of information. The lowest level of the RBS can also be used as a risk checklist.Diagramming techniques: Some Risk diagramming techniques may also be used for risk identification which includes cause-and-effect diagrams, system or process flow charts and influence diagrams. Process Information collection Documentation review Assumption analysis Checklist analysis Diagramming techniques Out put Risk Register 3. 3 Qualitative risk analysis There are several theories to quantify risks [12, 17]. Numerous different risk formulae exist, but perhaps the most widely accepted formula for risk quantification is: Rate of Occurrence i. e. , probability multiplied by the Impact of event equal to Risk Number, mathematically expressed in equation 7. The i nputs and output of qualitative risk analysis process is shown in table-4.PMI defined values of probability and impact factor can be used in risk analysis given in Table 5. However, the selection of one of the value of P for a particle risk from table 5, is based on expert judgment which may produce controversial results. The objective is to prioritize risk based on their probability and impact assessment. Probability and Impact matrix is used to visualize the impact of risk from least to maximum possibility. Another method called Risk Data Quality Assessment is used which requires accurate and unbiased data Analysis of the quality of risk data is a technique to evaluate the degree to which the data about risks is useful for risk management.It involves examining the degree to which the risk is understood. Risks to the project can be categorized by sources of risk (e. g. , using the RBS), the area of the project affected (e. g. , using the Work Breakdown Structure), or other useful c ategory (e. g. , project phase) to determine areas of the project most exposed to the effects of uncertainty. Table – 4 Process showing Qualitative risk analysis [19] Input Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Risk Management plan Risk Register Process Risk probability and impact assessment Probability and Impact matrix Risk data quality assessment Risk categorization Risk Register (updates) Out put 28Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Table 5: Standard values of frequency of occurrence and Impact factors [11] Possibility of occurrence very high chance High chance Greater chance Possible Likely Unlikely Probability (P) 90 % 75% 60% 45% 30% 15% Type and level of risk Impact When maximum impact on scope, time and cost High impact on scope, medium impact on time and lesser impact on cost High impact on time, medium impact on scope and lesser impact on cost When high impact on cost of the project, medium impact on time and lesser impact on scope Impact Factor (I) 0. 9 0. 6 0. 3 0. 1 3. 4 Quantitative risk analysisFor quantitative risk analysis any of the following method may be used as illustrated in Table 6. incorporates probabilities and the costs or rewards of each logical path of events and future decisions, and uses expected monetary value analysis to help the organization identify the relative values of alternate actions. See also expected monetary value analysis. Sensitivity analysis: Sensitivity analysis helps to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project. It examines the extent to which the uncertainty of each project element affects the objective being examined when all other uncertain elements are held at their baseline value.One typical display of sensitivity analysis is tornado diagram, which is useful for comparing relative importance of variables that have a high degree of uncertainty to those that are more stable. Expected Mon etary Value (EMV) Analysis: It is a statistical technique that calculates the expected outcome of future scenarios in monetary form that may or may not happen. Modeling and simulation: Modeling and simulation is recommended for cost and schedule risk analysis because it is more powerful and less subject to misapplication than expected monetary value analysis. Simulation uses a model that translates the uncertainties specified at a detailed level of the project into their potential impact on project objectives. 3. 5 Risk eduction strategies Risk register may be obtained from risk management procedure defined by Project Management Institute (PMI) [11], which is a document containing the results of the qualitative risk analysis and quantitative risk analysis. On the basis of risk analysis risk reducing strategy is set which is also given in risk register. The risk register in that way, presents all related information of identified risks including description, category, cause, probabil ity of occurring, impact(s), risk number and the possible strategy set for each risk. Decision Tree: The decision tree is a diagram that describes a decision under consideration and the implications of choosing one or another of the available alternatives. It is used when some future scenarios or outcomes of actions are uncertain.It Table 6: Process showing Quantitative risk analysis [19] Input Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Risk Management plan Risk Register Process Out put Quantitative risk analysis ( Sensitivity analysis, Decision Tree, Modeling and Simulation, Expected Monetary Value, EMV) 29 Risk Register (updates) Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 The common course of action of the any organization or participant (consultant, contractor, client or owner) participating in the construction process of oil and gas pipeline can adopt one or combination of course of action given below, depending upon the type of project, lo cation and circumstances.Distribution of risk between participants of the project can be made by: 1. Risk Transfer (insurance, contracts) 2. Contingency Budget 3. Risk mitigation (problem solving and root cause analysis) 4. Risk avoidance 4. Development of Risk Management Model for Pipeline Construction Projects Project Management Institute (PMI) approach of risk analysis and management may be complicated and laborious for construction project like pipeline. Therefore a model of risk analysis and management is developed which simplifies the process and produce more probable results with the implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (Figure 3). Project document review Market Analysis Client/Contractor reviewGeopolitical analysis and review 2. Risk Classification Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) 3. Risk probability and impact factor Data collection (Authentic source) Data processing (Normal, Beta, Gamma, Log, etc distribution) Calculation of Frequency (P) and Impact factor (I) 4. Risk an alysis 5. Monte Carlo Simulation Identification of critical risk 6. Risk management strategy Risk Transfer (Contract, insurance) Risk Distribution (Between parties) Risk Mitigation (Eliminating risk causes) Risk Avoidance 7. Risk monitoring process Documentation Monitoring process and results Check and make changes Data Bank Figure3: Risk Management Model for pipelines construction project. 30Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan STEP-1: Model starts with identification and classification of risks considering the type of construction project. Degree and frequency of risk varies from trunk pipeline to distribution line. Similarly it gives suitable approach for both the major parties i. e. Owner (client) and the Contractor. Before identifying the risk the market review, client/contractor capability and geopolitical conditions of the region are analyzed where project is expected to be executed. The types of risk are also depending upon the ty pe of contractual relationship between the owner and constructing firm. In different ypes of contract (Build-Operate and Transfer, Engineering-Purchase and Construction, Figure, Turnkey contracts, Labour contract, etc) between the owner and constructing body the level and intensity of risk differs [13]. STEP-2: On the basis of risk identification risk are categorized and Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) is made as shown in Figure 4. Risk identification is the most important thing followed by the probability and impact calculations in whole risk analysis process. Figure 4: Risk Breakdown Structure of gas pipeline project STEP-3: Risk probability assessment investigates the likelihood that each specific risk will occur. Risk impact assessment investigates the potential effect on a project objective such as time, cost, scope, or quality.The selection of PMI defined the values of probability and impact factor given in Table 5 is based on expert judgment which may produce controversial res ults. For instance, it may be difficult some time to distinguish the possibility from â€Å"Higher Chance† to â€Å"Greater Chance† for that an expert can use 60% probability value however, another use 45%. In that way some negligible risk may be superseded to other important risk. Risk impact factor defined by Project Management Institute (PMI) are used in this study which range from 0,1 to 0. 9 depending upon the type and impact of event to the project. For risk Monte Carlo Simulation the precise value of probabilities are required.Therefore, probability and impact of each risk may be calculated based on historic data. In this 31 case we the values of probability of different risks are calculated by using different probability distribution curves, however, when the historical data is not available, the probability is judged by experts opinion (from SNGPL) or the direct value of probability for that particular risk published by the related government agency. It is ver y important to define the probability distribution of a risk on the basis of that the frequency of occurrence is calculated. It is observed that the probability distribution of different risk appearing in different stages of project life cycle is different.Therefore, during calculation of probability of each risk the characteristic of risk must be considered to find the appropriate distribution to get the more precise results. For example, figure 5 shows the 10 year data of flood [21] depicts that the a normal curve is best suited to find the probability of a given volume/time called as the flood flow may be calculated using Equation 1,2 and 3 [14]. Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Figure 5: Graphical representation of flood data 1990-2001 where P – probability of occurrence Z – area under normal curves for a given value X (the probability of that area can be found out from charts) ? – mean value of the 10 year data of river flows. ? – standard deviation of the mean data.On the basis of historical data, obtained from IRSA, the probability of river flow more than 400 (MAF) (which is termed as flood flow) through river system of Pakistan (sum of river flow at a time on Mangla and Terbela) is calculated by using measured. Similarly other risks are also quantified based on the characteristic of data distribution curve. For instance, for earthquakes we are interested to find the probability of occurrence earthquake more than 5. 5 Richer Scale. According to construction codes, the earthquake between 3. 5-5. 4 Richer Scale is often felt, but rarely causes damage. A value of 5. 5 Richer Scale is selected to calculate probability of 32 occurrence under assumption that almost slight damage to well designed buildings can caused major damage to poorly constructed buildings over small regions.Pipelines can go under slight damage of residual. For a random variable X (x > 0 and elsewhere i. e. x < 0 the value of probability is zero) have an exponential distribution with parameter ? then probability distribution is defined as in equation (4), (5) and (6) [14]. Therefore either exponential or gamma distribution (with m =1) may be used for probability calculation of earthquake at a given value (in Richer Scale) using the historical data [9], as shown in the Figure 6. where P – probability of occurrence ? – mean value of historic data ? – standard deviation of the historic data e – 2. 718282 VAR is the variance at any value X. For 5. Richer Scale earthquake ? = 1 ? P (X > 5. 5) = ? 1. e – 1*5. 5 = 0. 000408 5. 5 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Frequency of occurrence 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Earthquake Intensity (Richer scale) Figure 6: Graphical representation 45 year earthquake data STEP-4: On the basis of probability values for each risk a risk register (table 7) may be made which presents quantitative risk analysis for each risk. PMI defined impact factor can be used which clear cut defines the type and condition of risk impact. On the basis of this formula below qualitative risk analysis is made.The following relationship is used for risk analysis [11]: RN = P x I RN – Risk Number P – Probability of occurrence I – Impact factor of risk For parameters the data is not available expert judgment can be used for probability assessment. Risk Number (RN) can be found for all risk identified in Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS). Manually it can be identified critical risk having larger risk number, RN based on the one point calculation. However, the more authentic way to identify the critical risks associated to pipeline project is Monte Carlo Simulation approach which is discussed in next step. STEP 5: Monte Carlo simulation is a widely used computational method for generating probability distributions of variables that depend on other variables or param eters represented as probability distributions.Although Monte Carlo simulation has been used since the 1940s, development of computer technology has made it accessible and attractive for many new applications [15]. That availability has coincided with increasing dissatisfaction with the deterministic or point estimate calculations typically used in quantitative risk assessment; as a result, Monte Carlo simulation is rapidly gaining popularity. Monte Carlo simulation, which is a mathematical method used in risk analysis to approximate the distribution of potential results based on probabilistic 33 (7) inputs would involve many calculations of the intake rate rather than a single calculation; for each calculation, the computation would use a value for each input parameter randomly selected from the probability density function for that variable [16].Each simulation is generated by randomly pulling a sample value for each input variable from its defined probability distribution, e. g. uniform, normal, lognormal, triangular, beta, etc. These input sample values are then used to calculate the results, i. e. total project duration, total project cost, project finish time. The inputs can be task duration, cost, start and finish time, etc. This procedure is then repeated until the probability distributions are sufficiently well represented to achieve the desired level of accuracy. They are used to calculate the critical path, slack values, etc. Monte Carlo simulations have been proven an effective methodology for the analysis of project schedule with uncertainties.In Monte Carlo simulation any desired level of mathematical accuracy can be achieved by increasing the number of iterations. Risks are probable entities, it is possible that all the risk accrued at the same time during project execution and may be no identified risk appears. Therefore, it is desired to use Monte Carlo simulation technique to find the most critical and probable risk which can appear in the pi peline project. Risk analysis has been made by using program Riskyproject 1. 3. 3 [20] which is an advanced project management software with integrated risk analysis. RiskyProject is used for planning, scheduling, quantitative risk analysis, and performance measurement of projects with multiple risks and uncertainties.RiskyProject determines which parameters will have the most effect on the project: duration, cost, and finish time with and without risks, crucial tasks, critical risks, and success rate. RiskyProject helps to optimize the course of the project: track project performance and risk together and analyze the affect of mitigation efforts [22]. On the basis of Monte Carlo simulation critical risks are Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Table 7: Risk input in risk register and their quantitative analysis for pre-defined risks Risk Identification and Categorization Cat. Risk 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 1. 2. Risk Register Risk An alysis Freq. Risk reducing StrategyRanking 27 3 23 25 8 14 29 1 12 21 16 8 9 12 4 5 3 2 24 18 19 11 10 5 20 11 12 5 15 3 12 2 6 8 Risk Avoidance Risk Risk Transfer Mitigation Remarks Risk Delay in approvals from regulatory bodies Unstable Government policies Change in regulations Change in labor policy Change in petroleum policy Political instability Lawlessness, strikes, lockouts Change in economic parameters Hike in material prices Unavailability of skilled laborers Change in project scope Insufficient technology Completion of construction not on time Not realistic planning of resources and volume of work Request for increase in project budget In sufficient specialist and engineers Strains in contractual relationships Financial delays Disinvestment from the market Loss ofPartnership Change in credit policy (increase interest rate) Design not completed in time Unexpected obstacle on site (dewatering, rock excavation) Slow communication between team members War Terrorism Accident on site during construction Loss of human life Earthquake Flood Landslides Unexpended weather condition, precipitation wind storms Damage to environment Degradation of natural resources (P) 5,15% 8% 2,10% 2,90% 5% 4% 4,50% 8,10% 8,03% 6,80% 3,9 % 10% 9,50% 8,10% 13,13 % 6,50% 5,30% 6. 1 % 4,40% 3,01% 5,10% 7,80% 7,80% 5,90% 0,10% 2,20% 2% 3,90% 0,04% 3,07% 2,1 % 4,72% 3,75% 1,10% Impact (I) 0,32 0,6 4 0,9 0,6 0,6 0,6 0,3 0,9 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,1 1Risk Number 1,55% 4,80% 1,89% 1,74% 3,00% 2,40% 1,35% 7,29% 2,41% 2,04% 2,34% 3,00% 2,88% 2,43% 3,94% 3,90% 4,77% 5,49% 0,44% 1,81% 1,53% 2,34% 2,34% 3,54% 0,09% 1,98% 1,80% 2,34% 0,12% 2,76% 0,63% 2,82% 2,25% 0,66% E?5 E? E? GO E? E? E? 6 3 GO, EO SA 7 GO E? EO EO EO SA GO SA EO EO SA EO SA EO EO EO SA SA SA SA SA SA SA GO GO 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,3 0,6 0,6 0,6 0. 1- When high impact on cost of the project, medium impact on time and lesser impact on scope. 0. 3- High impact on time, medium impac t on scope and lesser impact on cost. 3. 0. 6- High impact on scope, medium impact on time and lesser impact on cost. 4. 0. 9- When maximum impact on scope, time and cost. 5.EO- Frequency of risk is based on expert’s opinion. 6. GO- Frequency of risk is based on statistic available by relevant Government organization. 7. SA- Frequency of risk is based on statistical analysis. 34 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Figure-7(a): Monte Carlo Simulation conducted for risk analysis of Muree Rawat gas pipeline project presents most probable cost and duration to complete project. It also presents most probable date of completion of the project considering all identified risks. Figure-7(b): Result obtained from simulation identifying most critical risk impacting scope, duration and cost Muree Rawat gas pipeline project dentified impacting on scope, cost and duration of project [Figure 7 (a) and (b)]. Strategy for risk management is set ac cordingly. The following analysis and results was produced by the programme: 35 Sensitivity analysis Success rate of completion Critical risks affecting cost Critical risks affecting duration of project Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Critical activities. Most probable duration Most probable cost of the project Most probable date of completion of project. STEP 6: On the basis of critical risk identification by Monte Carlo simulation, risk reduction strategy is set, which may be risk transfer, mitigation, avoidance, distribution and etc.During construction process the impact of risk can be lowered by changing the schedule of construction for example 95% of probability of flood occurrence is in period from June to August. In flood, the area comes under water and may not be possible to continue the construction process. Therefore, schedule may be set in a way that ground related activities should be set accordingly to avoid the occurrence. STEP 7: The results or set methodol ogy for risk management must be periodically monitored and checked for improvement. Lesson learned and recommendation should be send to â€Å"Data Bank† which may be useful for risk analysis and management of another pipeline project of similar nature. organizational capacity for design, construction and operation. Organizational or technological risk like insufficient resource planning or project management, change in scope etc can be eliminated by improving the process or application of new technologies available in this field. New state of the art technologies are helpful in managing change at any stage of the project. Historical data of river flows shows that the flood has probability of 95% of occurrence between June and August. This risk can be minimized during construction phase by rearranging the construction schedule. Other risks like landslides are associated with floods, rain fall or earthquakes. Earthquake risk during construction phase depends on the length of ex ecution of project and only impact on the construction cost of the project. As the duration of the execution increases probability of occurrence of risk also increase.However, in operation phase this risk must be eliminated by practicing design based on earthquake/horizontal forces. †¢ †¢ 5. Conclusion and Recommendations †¢ Probability of risk occurrence â€Å"P† comes out to be the function of project duration â€Å"T† both during construction and operation phase. However Intensity of destruction or Impact is a function of enterprise internal and external environment. Three most critical tasks calculated by Risky Project are Excavation, Transportation of Material and Stringing of pipelines. The most critical risks come out to be change in economic parameters, Change in design and scope, earthquake and terrorism during construction and operation of gas pipelines.Considering all risks the probable values to project completion calculated by Risky project is 460 days however the base project duration is 390 days. Similarly the project cost without risks is 350,00,000 however, with risks it is 391,00,000. On the basis of that contingency budget of project can be formulated to cater the risk. The secondary risks like change in material prices, construction not finished in time or budget and design not in time can be reduced or transferred to the other party or organization by contract. However SNGPL is designing, constructing and operating gas pipelines so risk can be eliminated by strengthening the internal Acknowledgement Mr. Pervair, Senior General Manager and Engr.Waqar Ashraf, Deputy General Manager (Projects), SNGPL are acknowledged for their contribution and support in providing data and relevant material. †¢ REFERENCE [1] Economic Survey of Pakistan, Ministry of Finance, Chapter 15, Energy Sector of Pakistan, Islamabad, Pakistan. (2006), 219-225. [2] Annual Report; Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL), Lahore, Pakist an (2006), 511. [3] Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) Pipeline Pre-feasibility report by Hagler Bailly Pakistan. Islamabad, Pakistan, (2006), 111-119. [4] Syed Hassan Nawab; Proc. 3rd Pakistan oil & gas conference, Islamabad, Pakistan, (2007), 136-145 [5] Amberish K. D. ; A pipeline through Pakistan, Dehli, India (2004), 131-137. [6] John W. , Edward G. ; International Project Risk Assessment: Methods, Procedures, and Critical †¢ †¢ 36Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Factors (Center Construction Industry Studies, Report No. 31, The University of Texas at Austin) Austin, Texas. (2003), 41-49. [7] FIDIC  © Conditions of contract for construction. (Multilateral Development Bank Harmonized Edition). Geneva, Switzerland. (2005), 217-229. [8] Armbruster J. ; Research Journal, 83(1978) 8891. [9] Mahdi S. , Muhammad S. ; Proc. 1st International Conference on Earthquake Engineering (ICCE), Lahore, Pakistan, (2006), 177-182. [10] D'Appoloni a E. ; Proc. of 9th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering,Tokyo, Japan, 4(1979), 410-414. 11] PMBOK ® Guide; A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, 3rd Edition, PA, USA, (2004), 237-264. [12] Peter C. , Robert P. ; Proc. 2nd International Deepwater Pipeline Technology Conference. London, UK, (1999), 291-297. [13] Conditions of Contract for EPC/Turnkey Projects, Guidance for the preparation of the particular Conditions Forms of Tender, Contract Agreement and Dispute Adjudication Agreement, USA, (1999), 4-12. [14] Sher Muhammad Ch. ; Introduction to statistical theory, Ilmi Kitab Khana, Urdu Bazar, Lahore, Pakistan, 6th Ed, (1996), 361-370. [15] Susan R. P. ; Proc. Int. Conference on Risk Assessment and Policy Association meeting in Alexandria, Virginia, (1997), 245-255. [16] Brenda McCabe; Proc. Int.Conference on Simulation, Toronto, Canada, (2003), 15611565. [17] Jack R. , Meredith, Samuel J. , Mantel Jr. ; Project Management, 5th Ed, NJ, USA, (2002), 191105. [18] Wells Louis, Gleason Eric; Harvard Business Review Journal, 73(5)(1995) 44-54. [19] CPM 128: Project Management Boot Camp, (2006), 11. 1-11. 30. [20] www. intaver. com/accessed on 10th March, 2007 [21] Annual Flood Report; Ministry of Water and Power, Islamabad, Pakistan, (2006), 1-5 also available online on http://www. pakistan. gov. pk/ministries/index. jsp ? MinID=24=291. [22] User’s Guide to RiskyProject Professional 1. 3, Intavar Institute Inc. , USA, (2006), 31-38. 37